LME Copper ($US/MT)

Copper has a huge influence on the ASX200 through it’s strong correlation to the likes of BHP and RIO, and although its “wobbled” since the US-Iran conflict started, we like one of the leading indicators of demand:

• The Yangshan copper premium is the additional cost (in US$/MT) that Chinese buyers pay to import refined copper cathode into the Yangshan bonded warehouse zone in Shanghai, above the LME benchmark price. Its published weekly and is widely regarded as the most reliable real-time barometer of Chinese physical copper import demand.

Phase 1 — Rally (Jul 2023 – Dec 2023): The premium climbed steadily from ~$45/t in July 2023 to a three-year high of ~$110/t in early December 2023, reflecting strong Chinese import demand as the post-COVID recovery gathered pace.

Phase 2 — Collapse into Negative Territory (Jan 2024 – Jul 2024) :The premium fell sharply through 1H24, turning negative in May 2024, reaching as low as -$13/t in June 2024 – an obvious bearish signal, indicating diminished Chinese appetite.

Phase 3 — Recovery & Elevated Range (Aug 2024 – Present): The premium recovered sharply from August 2024, rebounding back above $50/t and sustaining elevated levels through 2H24 and into 2025. A 2025 peak of ~$101/t was reached in May 2025, driven by tariff-related front-loading and renewed Chinese demand, before easing back.

The most recent readings show the premium is rising, a potential early signal of improving Chinese appetite.

• We remain bullish towards copper, believing surprises are likely on the upside due to increasing demand from global electrification and the AI infrastructure build out from all parts of the globe.