Copper managed to advance last week but gains were muted due to fears the Iran conflict would escalate and weigh on economic growth as oil traded near US$100/barrel – this feels like another market poised to advance if/when the US and Iran can find a lasting resolution. The same three factors keep driving the copper price with the net impact bullish:
Demand: Structural demand remains supported by AI infrastructure, electrification and resilient Chinese consumption, although seasonal weakness in China is creating a temporary headwind.
Supply: Supply remains the strongest bullish driver, with tariff-related stockpiling, production disruptions at major miners and chronic underinvestment reinforcing expectations of a widening structural copper deficit.
Macro: Macro risks, including higher oil prices, tariff uncertainty, AI-related sentiment swings and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment are tempering the bullish supply-demand outlook in the near term.
- We remain bullish towards copper, still believing a test of at least US$15,000 is likely before Christmas.
MM remains bullish towards copper ~US$13,500/MT
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