US stocks have been in reverse since the FOMC but as far as we are concerned the major question for now is will the sell-off cycle by equity markets bottom out above, or below, June’s low i.e. 3636 for the S&P500.
- We can see a far higher likelihood that US stocks break their June low than the ASX but the risk/reward is not exciting for the bears in our opinion – a falling VIX supports this view.
- When we add the outcome from the FOMC with other geo-political & macroeconomic factors it remains hard to imagine how the news can get worse – Putin’s even threatening nuclear action.