We selected EVN for MMs gold exposure as the precious metal corrected sharply back in March primarily wanting its copper exposure (~25%) to offer a degree of insulation to the volatility unfolding in the precious metals space – the move has played out reasonably well through 2026, with the miner outperforming most of the gold sector. However, the picture changed short-term yesterday after the stock fell almost 4% after the flagging that inflation would lift FY27 costs by 4–5% and capital expenditure would increase as development activity ramps up – this might be echoed across other gold producers over time. The obvious move following the EVN release is to consider other low-cost producers:
- Capricorn Metals (CMM) is the standout low-cost operator; its Karlawinda Gold Project (KGP) AISC of $1,548/oz reflects a single, high-grade, open-pit operation with a lean cost structure.
- Evolution Mining (EVN) at $1,581/oz is similarly competitive, though as flagged yesterday, management has guided for a 4–5% AISC step-up in FY27 (~$150–160/oz), which would push costs toward ~$1,730–1,740/oz.
- Northern Star (NST) at $2,720/oz is materially higher, reflecting its multi-asset, multi-jurisdiction portfolio (including the higher-cost Jundee at $3,030/oz and Thunderbox at $3,175/oz).
The next few sessions might be tough on EVN, but we don’t believe it’s time to jump ship to another gold miner.
- We like the risk/reward towards EVN on weakness back towards $11.
MM is long and bullish towards EVN around $11
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Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN), v Capricorn Metals (CMM) and Northern Star (NST)
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Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN), v Capricorn Metals (CMM) and Northern Star (NST)
