The Greenback experienced another quiet week, in line with bonds, as mixed messaging from the Fed left traders guessing about the timing of US rate cuts. The $US feels comfortable around the 104 area at this stage of the cycle, but if/when it does retest in the 100 area, it will deliver a tailwind for commodities such as oil, gold, and copper.
- No change; we remain net bearish on the US dollar through 2024/5, targeting an eventual break below 100 support.
MM remains bearish toward the $US over the medium/long term
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The Aussie may look and feel weak compared to the $US, but it’s soaring compared to the Yen—an excellent time for holidays in the land of the rising sun. A great example of that is that there is often more than one way to look at markets, especially in currency land.
- We can see the AUD and Yen rallying against the $US over the next 1-2 years, but it’s a tougher call against each other.
MM is neutral towards the Aussie-Yen around the 100 area
