CRN disappointed the market in late April primarily due to a lower-than-expected average realised price for its coal. However, CRN is positioned for a better CY24 driven by higher volumes and lower costs at Curragh. Cash is key for CRN, and free cash flow yield is set to lift significantly in CY25. If Met coal prices can hold ~US$250/t this year, supported by seasonal Indian restocking and the Anglo supply issue, CRN should be well positioned moving forward, and especially as a leveraged play if coal prices can rally back towards $US300, where they were trading at the start of 2024.
- CRN is well positioned for a strong Met coal market, it’s higher risk and we prefer WHC and NHC in the sector for growth and yield, respectively.
MM is now bullish toward CRN
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