FY21 result: Shares getting hit today down 11% at time of writing after they beat consensus for FY21 and upgraded revenue guidance for FY22 however downgraded margin guidance, now expecting EBITDA margin between 34%-36% (vs prior target 36-39%), implying EBITDA for FY22 between $70-78. Consensus for revenue in FY22 was $202m and EBITDA $75.5m, so guidance is above in terms of both revenue and EBITDA. The reaction from the market today is negative, a few reasons we suspect. Downgraded margin guidance implies a softer underbelly, unaudited financials at FY results is strange and rhetoric in the announcement and on the call today seemed almost too positive for the results delivered. Our (Shaw) Analyst Jules Cooper had this to say… We maintain our Buy rating and $38.50 PT (under review), which is in-line with the original Autodesk offer, although was verbally increased to around $40 according to press articles. On our forecasts, ALU is currently trading on FY22 EV/Adj EBITDA multiple of 41.2x, which is below the average multiple it has traded at since Feb 2019, when ALU’s industry transformation goal begun to be widely communicated (~43x).
scroll
Question asked
Question asked
Question asked
Question asked
Question asked
Question asked
Question asked
Question asked
Question asked
Question asked
Question asked
Performance update for March, stocks that drove returns & our current positioning
Close
Wednesday 24th April – ASX200 +17pts, Silver Lake (SLR), Kogan (KGN) & CPI
Close
Market Matters Research Lead Shawn Hickman with David Koch
Close
Wednesday 24th April – DOW +263pts, SPI +27pts
Close
MM remains bullish ALU, contemplating increasing our weighting
Add To Hit List
Related Q&A
Is Wistech (WTC) a Hitlist candidate?
Best way to play the Tech stock rally
Does MM prefer HUB24 or Altium?
What’s MM’s favourite 5 stocks for short term bull run?
Thoughts on ALU, MNS & IMU?
MM’s thoughts on ALU and TMH?
Does MM like Australian technology companies?
ALU, CDA, & 3 US-listed stocks BNTX, ZM, GOOS
Thoughts on ALU & APT
Altium smells fishy
MM view on ALU
Relevant suggested news and content from the site
Video
WATCH
Performance update for March, stocks that drove returns & our current positioning
Recorded Tuesday 9th April
Podcast
LISTEN
Wednesday 24th April – ASX200 +17pts, Silver Lake (SLR), Kogan (KGN) & CPI
Daily Podcast Direct from the Desk
Video
WATCH
Market Matters Research Lead Shawn Hickman with David Koch
Recorded Monday 25th March
Podcast
LISTEN
Wednesday 24th April – DOW +263pts, SPI +27pts
Daily Podcast Direct from the Desk
Members only
UNLOCK MARKET MATTERS NOW
Take a free trial.
No payment details required.