Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.
Hi MM team, Keep up the great work. I am quite exposed to gold equities which unfortunately have tumbled along with the gold price due to rising bond yields due to inflation expectations running hot in the US and rest of the world due to the war in Iran etc. Keen for where you think gold might bottom out, perhaps from a technical perspective (or any analyses), and where you think it will end by year end, and in 2027. Thanks, Young
Hi Young,
Gold tumbled below $US4,000/oz on Wednesday night, for the first time since late 2025 as the $US continued to push higher. However, encouragingly the gold stocks as a group (GDX ETF) held above their lows posted earlier this month.
Unfortunately, precious metals had become a very crowded bullish space earlier in the year (remember the queues trying to buy physical gold in Sydney) and washouts/pullbacks from such market positioning tend to be deeper and more painful than many expect – gold is already down ~30% from its panic January high.
In the latest Bank of America Fund Managers Survey, after months of regarding gold as overvalued and a “crowded trade”, the survey suggests sentiment is shifting. The percentage of managers who believe gold is overvalued has fallen to its lowest level since February 2024, a sharp turnaround from earlier in the year when the highest reading since the survey began in 2012.
We believe gold is an “accumulate” at current levels, and Gold stocks showed this on Friday. While we wouldn’t be surprised to see the GDX ETF test the $100-105 area, another ~5% lower, the risk/reward favors buying at current levels. We think Gold will generally trade higher from here.
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