16/06/2025 09:41

Gold ($US/oz)

As would be expected, gold spiked after Israel conducted airstrikes as its safe haven status came to the fore. The precious metal climbed as much as 1.8% before paring some gains, similar to oil. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation would continue until the “threat” was removed, and the conflict and war of words escalated.

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13/06/2025 13:36

Shawn’s Trade Idea: Sell VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Shawn believes it's time to take a ~21% profit on the GDX Gold ETF position into the almost panic-like buying after the Israel attack on Iran. The current open Woodside (WDS) position provides enough exposure to ongoing escalation in Middle East tensions.

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03/06/2025 09:20

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) $80.00

Gold miners ETFs provide a valuable insight into the sector's performance, and it’s a bullish picture at this stage, with the GDX ETF on track to reach new highs above $84. The US equivalent surged over 6% last night, posting fresh decade highs implying the locally traded ETF will follow suit, less the $A’s ~1% advance.

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22/05/2025 09:31

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) $77.02

This ETF holds heavyweight gold stocks from overseas and Australia ( just 11%). Its largest three holdings are Newmont (NEM US)  (11.7%), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US) (11.2%), and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM US) (7.4%).

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15/05/2025 09:35

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) $72.25

If we are correct about gold, this ETF should fall another 3-5% as it holds heavyweight gold stocks from overseas and Australia  (11%). The ETF's largest three holdings are Newmont (NEM US)  11.7%, Agnico Eagle  Mines (AEM US) 11.2%, and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM US) 7.4%.

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28/04/2025 09:21

Shawn’s Trading Ideas: Buy gold into further weakness

As discussed previously, MM likes gold into weakness, believing the risk/reward will be attractive ~$US3,100 I believe that gold will trade higher through 2025 in line with a re-rating of the $US.

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11/06/2024 08:52

Commodities

Dr Copper surged higher at the start of 2024 only to pull back 15% over the last 3 weeks, a classic case of too much too soon on the upside. We often refer to short-term moves by financial markets as “noise”, which appears to be the case with this industrial metal, but the tailwind from global electrification, as we strive to attain a cleaner planet, is set to push Cu significantly higher. The final piece of the puzzle to take copper and other industrial metals higher is China, the world's largest consumer, which is still labouring under the weight of a property crash.

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03/06/2024 08:52

First Up

Uranium, the fuel used for nuclear fission, has sprung to the forefront of investor conversation over recent years, sparked by a mammoth 300% appreciation, which began back in 2021. As would be expected, the related stocks have surged accordingly. Interestingly, so far in 2024, when uranium (chemical symbol U) has corrected over 10%, most of the related stocks have kept going. For example, year-to-date Paladin (PDN) is +62%, and Boss Energy (BOE), the “poorer” cousin, is +16%, pretty good returns when the ASX200 is up less than 2%.

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31/05/2024 09:17

Global Markets

US stocks and, in particular, tech struggled overnight as the market was refreshingly driven by corporate news flow as opposed to speculation around interest rates, but there was some major volatility under the hood, e.g. Salesforce -20%, Dell -15% (after hours) Kohl dept.  store -23%, HP +17%, Footlocker +15%, Best Buy +13%, Dell -15% and Birkenstock +12%. As MM has alluded to recently, “Hold on tight; volatility is set to increase in both directions”.

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31/05/2024 09:15

First Up

The local market has fallen 300 points over the last fortnight and local bond yields have moved up 25bps, but it was finally refreshing to see some bargain-hunting surface throughout the day, eroding over 40% of the early losses. We’re not breaking out the bunting just yet, but some investors appear to be accumulating out-of-favour stocks/sectors into the current weakness, although it's clearly at the expense of some profit-taking in the market's top performers.

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