28/04/2025 09:21

Shawn’s Trading Ideas: Buy gold into further weakness

As discussed previously, MM likes gold into weakness, believing the risk/reward will be attractive ~$US3,100 I believe that gold will trade higher through 2025 in line with a re-rating of the $US.

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11/06/2024 08:52

Commodities

Dr Copper surged higher at the start of 2024 only to pull back 15% over the last 3 weeks, a classic case of too much too soon on the upside. We often refer to short-term moves by financial markets as “noise”, which appears to be the case with this industrial metal, but the tailwind from global electrification, as we strive to attain a cleaner planet, is set to push Cu significantly higher. The final piece of the puzzle to take copper and other industrial metals higher is China, the world's largest consumer, which is still labouring under the weight of a property crash.

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03/06/2024 08:52

First Up

Uranium, the fuel used for nuclear fission, has sprung to the forefront of investor conversation over recent years, sparked by a mammoth 300% appreciation, which began back in 2021. As would be expected, the related stocks have surged accordingly. Interestingly, so far in 2024, when uranium (chemical symbol U) has corrected over 10%, most of the related stocks have kept going. For example, year-to-date Paladin (PDN) is +62%, and Boss Energy (BOE), the “poorer” cousin, is +16%, pretty good returns when the ASX200 is up less than 2%.

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31/05/2024 09:17

Global Markets

US stocks and, in particular, tech struggled overnight as the market was refreshingly driven by corporate news flow as opposed to speculation around interest rates, but there was some major volatility under the hood, e.g. Salesforce -20%, Dell -15% (after hours) Kohl dept.  store -23%, HP +17%, Footlocker +15%, Best Buy +13%, Dell -15% and Birkenstock +12%. As MM has alluded to recently, “Hold on tight; volatility is set to increase in both directions”.

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31/05/2024 09:15

First Up

The local market has fallen 300 points over the last fortnight and local bond yields have moved up 25bps, but it was finally refreshing to see some bargain-hunting surface throughout the day, eroding over 40% of the early losses. We’re not breaking out the bunting just yet, but some investors appear to be accumulating out-of-favour stocks/sectors into the current weakness, although it's clearly at the expense of some profit-taking in the market's top performers.

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27/05/2024 08:50

Commodities

Copper exploded to new highs earlier this month in a classic “blow off” style move, and while we remain bullish, a period of consolidation akin to that witnessed at the start of the year is now our preferred scenario. If we are correct, the buying will return to the copper stocks shortly as investors look for “bargains” in a sector many believe will trade higher over the coming years as the world strives for a cleaner planet.

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16/05/2024 09:20

Global Markets

US stocks closed at fresh all-time highs overnight as markets again focused on the Fed's two or three rate cuts in the next 9-12 months. We can see the current bullish sentiment lasting for at least a few months as stocks continue to demonstrate the path of least resistance is on the upside. However, we strongly believe this is increasingly becoming a stock pickers market as valuations slowly stretch on the upside, right up our street at MM.

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10/05/2024 09:23

Gold Spot ($US/oz) $US2346

Precious metals rebounded strongly overnight, with silver up +3.7% and gold +1.3%, as they also embraced the bounce across bond markets. At this stage, we see no reason to deviate from our preferred roadmap for gold, and although further consolidation remains likely we see higher prices through 2024 with the bull market remaining intact.

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06/05/2024 09:20

Commodities

Gold has been consolidating recent strong gains over the last few weeks. If it follows the rhythm of its pattern earlier in 2024, it should be “looking for a low” in the coming weeks while spending a bit more time between $US2300 and $2400, ultimately a good read-through for both bonds and stocks.

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01/05/2024 09:22

Global Markets

US indices endured a -1.6 % fall overnight to end their worst month in 2024; bond jitters dominated proceedings through April before the current reporting season. This week, earnings reports will be released from a wide range of companies, including Amazon, Apple, Pfizer, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, and Starbucks. Speculation that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at a two-decade high, in “higher for longer” fashion, continues to rattle stocks and bonds. April ended a 5-month winning streak for the S&P500, and after last night's retreat, our preferred scenario is we see US stocks dip under 4950, or at least another 2% lower, i.e. there is no hurry to put our elevated cash levels to work just yet.

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