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The “Big Four Banks”

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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The “Big Four Banks”

Hi James & Team This last week has been good for the Big 4 Banks. I hold ANZ, CBA & NAB. Concerns around housing market, inflation, changes to capital gains tax, negative gearing etc have impacted the Banks. What is your current view on ANZ, CBA, NAB and WBC? Do you see further upside in the next few months? Would you see any upside an opportunity to reduce banking exposure? regards Debbie

Answer

Hi Debbie,

Overall our position in the MM Growth Portfolio reiterates our view:

  • Our preferred two banks are still ANZ Group (ANZ) and Westpac (WBC).
  • We remain comfortable holding an underweight position, i.e. our combined 11% holding is significantly below their index weighting of ~20.6%.

We have no plans to increase our exposure as housing activity struggles, Net interest Margins (NIM) are under pressure, and bad debts are rising. Make no mistake the banks are still solid but they’re expensive compared to their global peers:

  • Even the cheapest ASX bank (ANZ at 14.8x) trades in line with JPMorgan — the most expensive and highest-quality US major. CBA at 26.3x trades at a 2.3x premium to JPMorgan and more than double the forward P/E of Citigroup and Wells Fargo.
  • CBA’s price-to-book of 3.75x is 43% above JPMorgan’s 2.63x — despite JPMorgan generating a significantly higher return on equity. ANZ and WBC trade broadly in line with BAC and WFC on this metric, but CBA’s premium is exceptional for a bank of its size and growth profile. Citigroup, trades at just 1.15x book, less than one-third of CBA’s multiple.

We are bullish the ASX  into Christmas but that view is predicated on a resolution to the US-Iran conflict, hence, to answer your question we do see mildly higher prices for the banks in 2026 given their index weights, but we’re not particularly bullish the sector.

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The “Big Four ASX Banks”
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