Ampol Ltd (ALD) $26.71
ALD is primarily involved in purchasing, refining, distributing, and marketing petroleum products and operating convenience stores; the stock has already fallen 24% in 2024.
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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 29.60 Fair value 33.86 One-star price 38.73
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (29.60) to the one-star price (38.73).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/NZD |
| Exchange Rate: 0.8140 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 36.23 |
| Price - 12 month high | 45.49 |
| Price - 12 month low | 27.58 |
| Pricing date | 4 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 1.35 |
| Market capitalization | 8,633.69 |
| 12 Month High price date | 24 SEP 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 26 FEB 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 1.36 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -3.59% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -6.53% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 2.69% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -5.90% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 20.25% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 13.47% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -18.07% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.400 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 7.491 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1.992 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 139.359 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 172.260 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 14.760 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 21.462 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 10.899 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 13.817 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.281 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.612 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 24.199 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 37.931 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 2.450 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 9.639 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.401 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 7.492 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.401 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 7.492 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 35.780 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 5.60 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 5.41 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 0.24 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 3.77 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 1.17 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.11 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 2.06 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 111.45 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 5.60 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 6,325.43 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 4,813.51 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 3.43% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 6.61% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 6.76% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 5,598.48 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 101.40% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 122.04% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 96.03% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 115.12% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 9,314.84 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 36,280.09 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 44,845.39 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 655.32 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 2,509.48 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 206.42 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 2,556.68 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 104.03 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 1,793.85 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 296.32 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 476.20 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 7.76 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 0.44% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 4.12% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 15.09% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 24.11% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 5.70% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 0.57% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 10.71% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 1.88% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 12.07% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 20.77% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 1.47% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 1.11% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 11.59% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 4.58% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 46.27% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 4.73% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 16.86% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 17.52% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | -34.65% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 16.54% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | -3.97% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -51.76% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 3.20% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 34.02% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (NZD, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 21 | DEC 22 | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
ALD is primarily involved in purchasing, refining, distributing, and marketing petroleum products and operating convenience stores; the stock has already fallen 24% in 2024.
ALD is primarily involved in the purchase, refining, distribution and marketing of petroleum products and the operation of convenience stores – most of us are leaving more money behind at their service stations than we would like! Yesterday saw ALD end Wednesday up +3.8%, the most in two years, as 3Q Total Sales Volume jumped +26% year on year, as trading volume soared to 5x its 20-day average.
ALD –12.56%: Hit hard following a disappointing trading update today which showed they were caught out by holding Jet Fuel purchased at higher levels before selling for a loss, partially offset by strong results in Refining, Convenience Retail and Z Energy. They did talk to continued volatility in conditions but went onto say that they were still on track to deliver record...
The combination of solid fuel demand, the successful acquisition of Z Energy and higher refining margins in 1H22 helped lift ALD to fresh post-COVID highs in recent weeks, a rally that was particularly noticeable in a falling market. MM likes the refining sector with ALD our preference over Viva Energy (VEA) although they both look destined for fresh 2022 highs in the not too distant future.
1H21 Result + proposed acquisition: Todays result was inline with expectations operationally so the focus was squarely on the news that they had launched a bid for NZ based Z Energy. The price offered is a big one, implying 9.1x EV/EBITDA while Z Energy has traded at 7.8x on average over the last 5 years plus they have had 4 profit downgrades in the past 2 years - ALD itself trades...
Companies reporting today on MM’s radar include: Ampol (ALD) 1H21 Results: Expectations for 1H21 NPAT of 171m & Dividend of $0.433 Charter Hall Group (CHC) FY21 Results: Funds From Operations (FFO) per share of $0.58, NPAT $269m & DPS of $0.38. FY22 expectations are for strong profit growth (+24%) to $333m Chorus (CNU) FY21 Results: Expectations for revenue of $947m, EBITDA of $645m, NPAT of $50.84m (down ~2% on FY20), EPS of $0.111, FY Dividend $0.25. Market currently pricing NPAT for FY22 of $49.25m, flat on FY21.
VEA +7.04% / ALD +6.09%: the fuel businesses received a boost from the taxpayer today with the Government announcing a $2b support package for domestic refineries.
Yesterdays “top performer” was Ampol (ALD) which embraced its solid earnings report – considering we believe this is a year to buy weakness and sell strength our interest was pricked by this fuel operator which is trading almost 30% below its 2020 high.
MM is neutral at best toward ALD
MM is neutral on ALD
MM is now neutral/bearish ALD following a weak update
MM is bullish ALD targeting the $39 area
All too rich for MM, we have no interest in ALD
MM is bullish ALD with technical stops under $25
Ampol (nee Caltex) is the largest and only Australian-listed petroleum refiner and distributor, with operations in all states and territories. It was a major international brand of Chevron's until that 50% owner sold out in 2015. Caltex transitioned to Ampol branding due to Chevron terminating its license to use the Caltex brand in Australia. Ampol has operated for more than 100 years. It owns and operates a refinery at Lytton in Brisbane, but closed Sydney's Kurnell refinery to focus on the more profitable distribution/retail segment. It successfully completed a NZD 2.0 billion bid for New Zealand peer Z Energy in first-half 2022.
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