Hi Peter,
“Tanked” is arguably an understatement with Starpharma (SPL) down ~45% over the last 2-weeks. Following its decision to increase its stake in Petalion Therapeutics from 22.5% to 66%, shares were smacked more than 30% when trading resumed on Tuesday.
The acquisition gives SPL majority ownership of an early-stage cancer treatment program targeting fibroblast activation protein (FAP), but it comes with additional funding requirements and lengthy path to commercialisation.
- With Petalion’s technology still at the stage of selecting a lead drug candidate, meaningful revenues could be years away, assuming the program is successful.
The concern is around capital allocation and the potential for further shareholder dilution, i.e. cap raisings. SPL is already consuming cash developing its existing drug pipeline, and investors appear reluctant to see additional resources committed to another speculative oncology program without greater clarity on funding.
In an environment of rising bond yields, investors are increasingly reluctant to pay a premium for earnings that may be years away — precisely the type of long-dated, speculative opportunity SPL has just embraced.
- We don’t like SPL’s move from an investment perspective at this stage of the cycle and won’t consider catching this particular falling knife, although a bounce feels likely in the coming days.