Portfolio Positioning: September is delivering both weakness & opportunity

Morning report 16/09/2026 09:31

Portfolio Positioning: September is delivering both weakness & opportunity

The ASX 200 fell another 0.9% on Tuesday, extending September’s decline to 4.5% and pushing the index into negative territory for 2026. The local market has become something of the “ugly duckling” among its global peers, particularly compared with Japan’s Nikkei (+24%) and the US S&P 500 (+12%).

Afternoon report 15/09/2026 16:46

The Match Out: ASX slides again as Miners and Banks weigh, Tech finds relief

The ASX continued its slide today, falling to a fresh three-month low as banks and miners came under renewed pressure, extending the broader market weakness. The index is now down around 6.5% from its 6 August record high. Macro continues to drive the sell-off; news flow around individual companies is almost non-existent, with oil, bond yields, and expectations for further central bank tightening later this week dominating sentiment.

Morning report 15/09/2026 09:43

What Matters Today: What If the Cracks in the AI Trade Spread?

The ASX 200 did well to eke out a modest gain on Monday despite a steady stream of negative news and weakness across global equity markets. Gains in the banks almost exactly offset weakness in the miners as the news continued to weigh on the previously high-flying sector

Afternoon report 14/09/2026 16:44

The Match Out: ASX edges higher as energy and healthcare hold firm; lithium and uranium stay under pressure

The ASX broke a four-day losing streak today, but only just, finishing essentially flat after an early gain of around ~0.3% faded through the afternoon.

Morning report 14/09/2026 09:53

Macro Monday: Will the ASX (+0.3%) continue to underperform the S&P 500 (+11.9%) in 2026?

The oil price is starting to weigh heavily on bond markets and the ASX, but US stocks are taking the geopolitical unrest in its stride, despite markets now pricing in two Fed 0.25% rate hikes by Christmas.

Weekend report 12/09/2026 10:11

Weekend Q&A: Rising bond yields send the ASX 200 down to 10-week lows

The ASX 200 fell 2.9% last week, extending the month's decline to 3.7% - we did warn members that September is the historically weakest month of the year! For reference, the worst-performing September of the last decade was 2022, when bond yields also surged higher, and that year the index closed down 7.3%.

Afternoon report 11/09/2026 16:53

The Match Out: ASX falls then finds support; Materials crater, Banks find their footing

The ASX was looking for a floor today, and found something resembling one through midday. After four straight days of selling, the market opened under heavy pressure again, before buyers emerged through the afternoon to claw back some of the damage.

Morning report 11/09/2026 09:26

ETF Friday: Four ETFs to consider if the ASX follows the 2022/2026 road map

The ASX 200 was clobbered on Thursday, falling more than 1% as broad-based selling left just 20% of the main board in positive territory. However, the market did recover 77 points from its intraday low, trimming around 45% of the day’s decline by the close. Yesterday was the local market’s third consecutive decline, with a fourth likely today, and its largest daily fall in more than three months.

Afternoon report 10/09/2026 16:55

The Match Out: ASX drops sharply; risk off dominates as yields and oil tick higher

The ASX took a punch today, but importantly, it got back off the canvas. The index was down as much as 1.8% around midday, its worst intraday fall since March, before buyers finally emerged and trimmed almost half of the session’s worst losses. It was still a third consecutive decline and all 11 sectors finished lower, but the late recovery was the first sign in a few sessions that the market is prepared to lean into weakness (at the right price).

Morning report 10/09/2026 09:33

What Matters Today: Could the BOJ & US Treasury trigger the next ASX rotation?

The ASX 200 extended September's pullback by another -0.1% on Wednesday despite a barnstorming session for the heavyweight copper miners - BHP Group (+3.3%), Sandfire (+2%) and RIO (+1.9%). However, broad-based weakness, which saw over 60% of the main board retreat, with standout selling in the CBA (-2.5%) enough to drag the index under 8900. Another strong move in oil prices, which rallied over 2% during local trade, was enough to keep buyers on the sidelines as it increasingly feels like the US has lost control of events in the Straits of Hormuz. We defer back to a comment in yesterday's report: