Skip to Content
scroll
A200
MM remains bullish towards the ASX200 around 9050
Add To Hit List
IVV
MM remains bullish towards the S&P 500 around 7700
Add To Hit List
IKO
MM is neutral towards the KOSPI around 6500
Add To Hit List
GDX US
MM is bullish towards the GDX ETF around US$97
Add To Hit List
GGOV US
We can see the Fed slowly unwinding the “bear steepener’ into 2027
Add To Hit List
MGR
MM is considering increasing its holding in MGR
Add To Hit List
ATEC
MM is cautiously bullish towards the ASX Tech sector
Add To Hit List
MM is bullish towards the ASX industrials

Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Does the analogy “Don’t fight the Fed” also apply to the US Treasury as they start buying bonds?

The US yield curve has been steepening sharply, with the gap between 2 and 30-year yields widening to ~111bp from ~69bp in late June. Importantly, this is a bear steepener: long-term yields have been rising much faster than short-term yields, reflecting growing investor concern around US deficits, sticky inflation, elevated oil prices and the enormous supply of government and corporate debt. At the same time, softer economic data and a Fed appearing to be on hold for now are keeping the 2-year yield relatively anchored.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX edges lower as tech tumbles; Mirvac & Stockland buck the weakness

The ASX 200 extended its recent pullback for a sixth consecutive decline. The market spent the session firmly in negative territory but recovered from its lows into the afternoon, with seven of the 11 sectors finishing lower as weakness across Technology, Real Estate and Financials outweighed another strong session for Healthcare and Energy and strong results in select Property stocks providing some support.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Reporting season finally offers a steadying hand to the ASX

The ASX 200 closed flat on Wednesday, experiencing a quiet day on the index level but anything but on the stock front following a bumper session for FY26 earnings. Only ~30% of the main board closed higher, but when CSL (+17%), BHP (+3%), and Goodman Group (+3%) dance to the same beat, adding 70 points to the ASX 200, it was always going to be a tough day for the bears, even if the crowd was in their camp.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX steadies as CSL posts best day in decades, BHP beats on copper strength

The ASX 200 finished around flat on Tuesday after trading between -0.2% and +0.4% in a blockbuster day for reporting with several index heavyweights out with numbers. CSL and BHP provided significant support adding ~56pts to the index between the two giants; without the pair, the underlying session was considerably softer, with the major banks, Staples, telcos and retailers mostly lower.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is Australian retail’s downturn just beginning?

The ASX 200 tried to reverse higher into lunchtime on Monday, only for steady, targeted selling throughout the afternoon to drag the index down by ~0.5%. On the stock & sector level, it was almost a carbon copy of August so far, with the miners again attempting to prop up an index weighed down by the flow-on effects of a softening housing market, where activity has ground to a near standstill since the May Budget. Consumer Discretionary, which we’ll revisit later, led the sell-off, falling 3%, while Financials and Real Estate also came under pressure, both declining more than 1%.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX falls as retail and banks weigh, gold and copper lift Materials

The ASX started the week on the back foot, with eight of 11 sectors lower as reporting season drove a sixth decline in seven sessions. Consumer Discretionary was the clear laggard, with a notable result from JB Hi-Fi sending waves through the broader retail complex after weakening sales momentum, while financials also weighed as NAB disappointed with its quarterly amid lower home loan application volumes. Materials provided the major offset, rebounding after three sessions of weakness as gold, copper and lithium rallied.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Macro Monday: ASX earnings are being outshone by corporate America

The latest US earnings season propelled the S&P 500 to fresh highs last week, delivering the strongest first-half earnings growth since the post-COVID rebound of 2021. Moving forward, consensus expects the 1H26 earnings boom to moderate but remain solidly positive, +10.5% in 1H27 and +15.0% in 1H28 (see orange below), suggesting the market anticipates a sustained, if more normalised, earnings expansion cycle rather than a one-off spike. If we look at the numbers in an even more granular fashion, it's not surprising US indices are posting fresh highs.

more
image description

Relevant suggested news and content from the site

image description
ASX 200 Industrials Index
image description
Webinar Recording: Are commodities entering a Supercycle?
image description
Thursday 11th September – Dow off -220pts, SPI off -20pts
image description
ASX 200 Tech Index
image description
Buy Hold Sell: The 6 income stocks readers love, plus 2 expert ideas
image description
Wednesday 10th September – Dow up +196pts, SPI down -4pts
image description
ASX 200 Real Estate REIT Index
image description
Buy Hold Sell: 5 ASX tech stocks bouncing back from the SaaS-pocalypse
image description
Global 30-Year Bond Yields – Source: Bloomberg
image description
Pulse Check Webinar: Portfolio positioning post the Budget
Members only

UNLOCK MARKET MATTERS NOW

Take a free trial.

No payment details required.

Already a member? Click here to login

The US yield curve has been steepening sharply, with the gap between 2 and 30-year yields widening to ~111bp from ~69bp in late June. Importantly, this is a bear steepener: long-term yields have been rising much faster than short-term yields, reflecting growing investor concern around US deficits, sticky inflation, elevated oil prices and the enormous supply of government and corporate debt. At the same time, softer economic data and a Fed appearing to be on hold for now are keeping the 2-year yield relatively anchored.

This is an important concept for investors – it isn’t the healthy steepening normally associated with stronger growth expectations; investors are demanding a higher premium to lend to the US government for 30 years. Higher long-term yields mean tighter financial conditions, more expensive mortgages and greater pressure on equity valuations, particularly for long-duration stocks. In simple terms, the front end suggests the Fed may be nearly done with rate hikes, while the long end suggests the bond market is increasingly worried about entrenched inflation and America’s fiscal trajectory.

 

Back to top