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Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (ASX: CQE)

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Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (ASX: CQE)

CQE reported what I understand to be a decent full year result. Since then and due likely to some issues with 3 of its properties relating to Edge early learning and has issued a statement indicating that this issue will not affect FY2027. I think the sell off has been unwarranted but would like your take on it.

Answer

Hi Kenneth,

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) has fallen ~12% from its early-August post-results peak of A$2.77 to A$2.43, despite as you say delivering a solid FY26 result;

  • Operating EPS rose ~13% to A$0.173, revenue increased 3.8%, and management guided to at least A$0.181 of EPS in FY27.

The initial ~8% results-day “pop” has subsequently unwound as investors reassessed the outlook and, in some cases, downgraded the stock, e.g. Barrenjoey downgraded CQE to Neutral following the result, focussing on FY27 guidance implying a moderation in earnings growth to at least 4.6%.

  • The disclosure of uncertainty around the three properties leased to Edge Early Learning weighed on sentiment, although the exposure is limited to ~1% of income and partially protected by bank guarantees.

The broader driver of weakness appears to be valuation pressure across the A-REIT sector as long-end bond yields have risen sharply. CQE’s long-WALE, inflation-linked cash flows give it relatively bond-like characteristics, making its valuation particularly sensitive to higher discount rates and narrowing spreads versus government bonds.

Also, the departure of Charter Hall Group CIO Sean McMahon may have also added to investor caution, but CQE’s underlying operating performance remains sound.

  • We see value in CQE around $2.40, especially since the US Treasury started propping up long dated bonds.
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Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE)
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