Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (ASX: DBI)

Hi Les,

DBI has slipped ~12% from its 2026 high although it is still up 5% ytd, outperforming the broader ASX200. Several factors have weighed on the stock of late:

• Metallurgical coal weakness: Softer met coal prices and weaker Chinese steel demand have weighed on sentiment toward Australian coal infrastructure. While DBI’s revenues are not directly linked to coal prices, sustained weakness could ultimately pressure throughput expectations at Dalrymple Bay Terminal.
• Long-term demand transition risk: DBI has flagged the structural risk of declining metallurgical coal demand as steelmaking shifts toward lower-emission technologies. Under its long-term scenario, terminal throughput could fall by around 50% by 2100 versus 2025 levels, potentially requiring higher Terminal Infrastructure Charges (TIC) to maintain cost recovery.
• Regulatory uncertainty: DBT’s current access undertaking expires in June 2031, while its declared-service status under the QCA Act expires in September 2030. Although there is no immediate financial impact, the approaching regulatory reset is something that will become more important the closer it gets.
• Rising long-end bond yields: As an infrastructure stock with relatively bond-like cash flows, DBI is sensitive to higher long-term yields. The recent rise in global and Australian long-end rates has reduced the relative attractiveness of infrastructure yields and increased discount rates, placing downward pressure on valuations.

The 4th point is likely the dominant near term factor causing the stocks recent retracement, but following the move by Scott Bessant and the US Treasury on Wednesday night this headwind could become a tailwind into Christmas.

• MM remains long DBI in our Income Portfolio, still liking the stock for yield.

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Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

LAST UPDATED 20/08/2026 13:39

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Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

LAST UPDATED 20/08/2026 13:39