Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC)

CHC screens strongly across all four core quant factors: positive earnings revisions, a track record of beating expectations, an improving industry backdrop and clear near-term catalysts. The company has upgraded guidance three times, while FY26 EPS expectations have risen 13.9% over the past three months. It also beat at its last two results, office conditions are improving, inflows have reached record levels, and the August result will provide both FY26 numbers and FY27 guidance.

• This combination of a low risk of missing guidance and further scope for consensus upgrades is exactly the type of setup systematic models tend to favour.

The main quant risk is a slowdown in AUM inflows. The current upgrade cycle relies on continued strength across institutional and retail channels, and if FY27 inflows fall materially short of the record A$6.5 billion achieved in FY26, earnings momentum could stall and leave the stock’s slightly elevated valuation more exposed.

Other risks include a renewed slowdown in office markets, higher long-term bond yields weighing on property valuations, and execution risk across the 1.5GW data centre pipeline, much of which remains prospective rather than contracted.

CHC has outperformed most of its peers this year, although it remains ~13% below its 2025 high, not helped by the three  RBA rate hikes this year.

• We like the risk/reward towards CHC into August’s result, with a test of $25/6 region our preferred scenario before Christmas.