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MM remains long & bullish S32 ~$4.00
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Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX remains anchored to 8800

Another session where the ASX was hit early before buyers stepped in, with the index recovering around 60 points from its two-week low to finish marginally higher. Technology and gold stocks led the rebound as investors bought the dip following recent weakness, while softer oil prices helped ease some concerns around inflation and the outlook for US interest rates. Brent crude eased below US$89/barrel after rising almost 6% over the previous two sessions, while gold recovered toward US$4,050/oz. The improvement in offshore technology sentiment also helped, with US futures turning higher and Asian chip stocks rebounding after the sharp sell-off triggered by concerns around Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

What Matters Today: Has Lithium bottomed? Why we’re reconsidering our bearish stance.

The lithium trade has lost its mojo in the last few months, but we believe the demand side of the equation remains healthy for lithium as battery energy storage emerges as a 2nd pillar of lithium demand alongside EVs, driven by AI data centres and rising global investment in storage. As we flagged in June, lithium supply is continuing to grow, with analysts divided on when the market will return to deficit—some expect 2026–27, while others don't see it until 2030. At MM, we remain bullish on the long-term structural drivers supporting spodumene and believe prices can ultimately move well above their 2026 highs. However, after the sector's strong gains over the past 12 months, this current pullback is understandable.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Faster rallies, harder falls – has the Market evolved?

Equities have been volatile through 2025–26, unsettled by both the Liberation Day tariff shock and the US-Iran conflict, yet despite the relentless headlines, the ASX 200 has gained less than 1% since the start of 2025. However, on the stock and sector level in particular, volatility has been even more pronounced due to the combination of increased leverage and crowded positioning:

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: The ASX200 continues to tread water around 8800, despite plunging semiconductors

The ASX 200 finished a volatile week virtually unchanged, holding the key 8,800 level despite escalating US-Iran tensions and a near-20% plunge in semiconductor stocks. The broader tone turned “risk-off” late in the week, with the miners the main weight on the index on a combination of renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and disappointing trading updates from the likes of BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN).

Afternoon report

The Match Out: Resources hit as ASX ends down for the week

The ASX was lower today with a sharp sell-off across gold, copper and lithium stocks overwhelming solid gains in energy, utilities and communications. The index recovered from its session low but still ended the week marginally lower as renewed fighting in the Middle East, rising oil prices and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates weighed on risk appetite.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

ETF Friday: Assessing 3 ETFs that are experiencing noticeable outflows this week

July has seen a tale of two halves for ETF flows: The month began with a sharp risk-off rotation as investors cut exposure to technology and AI, with the Nasdaq tracking QQQ losing ~US$11.5bn over four consecutive sessions, the S&P 500 tracking IVV shedding ~US$1.7bn, and software ETFs also suffering heavy redemptions. The standout exception was semiconductors, where SOXX attracted a record US$3.4bn in the week to 10 July, while US-listed ETFs remain on track for a record US$2tn of inflows in 2026.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: Weaker numbers from BHP cap market gains

The ASX 200 finished essentially flat today, with strength across financials, communications and consumer discretionary offset by sharp weakness in materials and energy. The market recovered from earlier losses but struggled to make headway as BHP reversed much of Wednesday’s rally and oil-exposed names continued to give back recent gains.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX higher as US banks deliver blockbuster results

The ASX ground higher today, with strength in the heavyweight miners offsetting weakness across energy, consumer staples and communications. It was the first session in over five where stocks opened firm, yet selling ticked up over the course of the day, with the market finishing well off it’s early peak. While we’re bullish on the market, investors are still in this buy weakness, sell strength mentality while the Middle East situation remains unresolved – lets hope we can get back to focussing on earnings at some point.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
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Another session where the index struggled to break out of its recent range, with the ASX 200 finishing marginally lower despite strong support from energy stocks. The benchmark has now closed little changed in five of the past seven sessions, as investors contend with competing signals from rising oil prices, Middle East tensions and ongoing volatility across technology and resources.

Brent crude pushed above US$90/barrel following renewed US-Iran hostilities and reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy acted as the market’s key support, while defensive areas were also well supported.

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