Gold & Resources & War

Hi Young,

Firstly, in the chart below we’ve indexed all four commodities to 0% on 17 July 2023, highlighting their relative performance over the past three years. Gold (+104%) has been the standout performer, driven by central bank buying and safe-haven demand despite pulling back from its January 2026 peak, while Copper (+60%) and Aluminium (+44%) have benefited from energy transition demand and supply constraints. In contrast, Iron Ore (-15%) has lagged as weak Chinese property activity and subdued steel demand continued to weigh on prices.

We discussed the sector in detail on Thursday here. We remain bullish towards the resources in general but a couple of points of note to add to Thursdays report:

• Our favourite of the 4 is copper (Cu) but we are conscious it’s a “crowded trade” that may consolidate its strong gains until the war is fully in the rear-view mirror.
• We remain bullish towards Aluminium, but it doesn’t carry the same demand drivers as Cu in our opinion.
• We do believe central banks will return to the gold arena, but the war will probably need to end first, reducing inflation fears and support of the US Dollar.
• Iron Ore remains our least favourite of the four due to the increased supply from RIOs Simandou mine in Guinea, West Africa.

chart

Gold, Copper, Aluminium & Iron Ore % Returns

LAST UPDATED 17/07/2026 13:16

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chart

Gold, Copper, Aluminium & Iron Ore % Returns

LAST UPDATED 17/07/2026 13:16