A strong March-quarter result from Cameco, with the uranium producer beating expectations across earnings, revenue, production and gross profit. The result was driven by higher uranium sales volumes, a better average realised uranium price and a growing contribution from Westinghouse, reinforcing the broader investment case around nuclear energy and long-term uranium demand. Management also maintained FY26 guidance, which we thought would have been taken positively, and it was initially, however the stock reversed lower throughout the session to finish down -3.2%.
1Q Highlights
- Adjusted EPS: C$0.47, up from C$0.16 a year ago and ahead of consensus for C$0.33-0.34.
- Revenue: C$845m, up 7.1% YoY, ahead of consensus for ~C$822-833m.
- Uranium production: 6.2m lbs, up 3.3% YoY and ahead of consensus for 5.3m lbs.
- Uranium sales: 7.8m lbs, up from 6.9m lbs a year ago.
- Average realised uranium price: C$91.26/lb, up 2.4% YoY and slightly ahead of expectations for C$90.29/lb.
- FY26 guidance: Maintained, including sales outlook of C$3.13bn-C$3.37bn, versus consensus around C$3.11bn.
This was a clean beat from Cameco, and we’re surprised the shares did not react more favourably. Higher realised prices, stronger volumes, and Westinghouse contribution are all helping, and guidance re-affirmed. We continue to like the long-term setup for uranium and nuclear energy, with Cameco remaining one of the cleanest large-cap ways to play the theme.
MM remains long & bullish CCJ US ~$US115
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