The Match Out: Commodities drive ASX rally, Nick Scali upgrades guidance

Afternoon report 22/12/2025 16:46

The Match Out: Commodities drive ASX rally, Nick Scali upgrades guidance

The ASX surged today, as a rally in commodities combined with rising expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts lifted risk appetite into the Christmas break. Gold was the standout driver, with energy and uranium stocks joined the rally, and banks posting modest gains, cooling from early strength.

Morning report 22/12/2025 09:26

Macro Monday: Can commodities extend their gains into 2026?

With a few trading days remaining, 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most polarised on the performance front in decades - the materials sector is up +28%, while tech is down -21% and healthcare is off -24%. The ASX200 is up ~6% (10% inclusive of dividends) camouflaging the volatile activity on both the stock and sector levels.

Weekend report 20/12/2025 09:11

Weekend Q&A: Some Christmas cheer is coming on Monday

The ASX 200 ended the week down -0.9%, leaving December up just +0.1% with the quiet Christmas period ahead. However, with the market set to open strongly on Monday morning, a Santa Rally could be set to arrive, albeit extremely late. Remember, the average gain for a December over the last 10 and 20 years is 1.0% and +1.2% respectively, still comfortably attainable by the local market from today’s position.

Afternoon report 19/12/2025 16:21

The Match Out: ASX up today, though down for the week

The ASX pushed higher on Friday, supported by a rebound in technology stocks and strength across the banks, following softer-than-expected US inflation data that reignited expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite today’s gains, the market is still tracking its first weekly decline in four weeks.

Morning report 19/12/2025 11:20

ETF Friday: Evaluating the best & worst performing ASX ETFs of 2025

The ASX 200 finally found some Christmas cheer on Thursday, reversing early losses to close marginally higher, not yet the Santa Rally that we’ve been hoping for, but better than another down day. Less than 55% of the main board closed higher, but a +1.1% advance by BHP was enough to add 8 points to the index, dragging it back into positive territory. It was an extremely quiet day as traders started to focus on the Christmas break, although two stocks still managed to move by over 15%.

Afternoon report 18/12/2025 17:25

The Match Out: ASX bounces into the close, Boss Energy hit on mine update

The ASX was on track to finish lower for a fourth consecutive session, before a solid rally in the afternoon positioned the index with its head just above water.

Morning report 19/12/2025 11:20

What Matters Today: Does MM like any of the 5 stocks racing to the bottom on Wednesday?

The ASX200 closed down another -0.2% on Wednesday, but this time it bounced well off its lows to close near its intra-day high, helped by a strong rally by the miners throughout the day. At the end of the session, the materials sector was the only one of the eleven to advance, but its +1.6% rise was enough to offset much of the broad-based losses spearheaded by the healthcare and energy stocks.

Afternoon report 17/12/2025 17:00

The Match Out: ASX slips, Gold stocks rally

The ASX eased on Wednesday as softer oil prices and muted implications from US labour data was largely offset by strength in gold miners. We’ve got two more trading sessions before the majority of the market head for Christmas holidays, with next week’s trade likely to be very quiet.

Morning report 19/12/2025 11:20

Portfolio Positioning: A Christmas rally is running out of time

The ASX 200 dropped 0.4% on Tuesday, reversing early gains as the tech and energy sectors led the decline, falling by 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. However, it was the miners that dragged the index lower, with the materials sector contributing more than 40% of the drop as profit taking rolled across the space. The selling was triggered on two fronts as global investors adopted an “if in doubt, get out” approach ahead of key US jobs data, and of course, Christmas.

Afternoon report 16/12/2025 16:50

The Match Out: ASX slips, more pain for Tech

The ASX slipped into negative territory through the session as early strength in the banks was offset by sharp weakness across technology and energy stocks. Investors remained cautious ahead of delayed US labour market data for October & November due tonight, which could shape expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts into 2026.