Precious metals have often dominated headlines through 2025, with both silver and gold regularly punching to new highs, with the GDX ETF surging almost +140%. However, in October, the precious metals market underwent a major shakeout, clearing out many weak longs and speculative positions as the “crowded trade” unwound in a classic panic, with everyone heading for the exit at the same time. In a single session, spot gold plunged as much as 6.3%, its sharpest one-day fall in over a decade, while spot silver tumbled 8.7%, despite no specific catalyst.
The bulls have since regained control as the Fed looks set to cut rates through 2026, with last night’s soft CPI adding fuel to the fire. We’re going out on a limb today, taking a contrarian stance. We believe 2026 will largely be a consolidatory year for precious metals, with plenty of good news built into the related names.
- We are looking for the GDX ETF to rotate between $110 and $140 through 2026, consolidating its strong gains through 2026.
MM is neutral towards the GDX ETF ~$130
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