Superannuation

Hi Paul,

We don’t provide advice specifically on how you should structure your superannuation, but the heart of your question is about investing through a shifting interest-rate environment, and that is something we can certainly speak to.

Over the past year, expectations for the RBA have swung meaningfully. Markets moved from pricing in cuts in 2026 to now factoring in the potential for rate hikes. These kinds of pivots are a great reminder of a core portfolio-construction principle: never build a portfolio that relies on only one macro outcome playing out.

When rates are falling, certain exposures typically perform well:

• Fixed-rate bonds, as their prices rise when yields decline
• Long-duration equities such as tech, healthcare innovators, and parts of real estate
• Growth-oriented sectors that benefit from cheaper capital

But the reverse is also true. If rates stay higher for longer, or rise, those same exposures come under pressure. Conversely, areas like floating-rate credit, value stocks, resources, and cash/short duration tend to hold up better.

So rather than positioning for just one scenario, a more robust approach is having a balance;

• Both fixed and floating rate income assets
• Equities across sectors that perform differently in different economic conditions
• Some defensives (health, staples, infrastructure) and some cyclicals (financials, resources)
• A mix of growth and value styles

This is the same philosophy we apply within our own portfolios: we may tilt toward views we think are likely, but we never concentrate a portfolio around a single macro call.

At this point, Markets are now fully pricing a rate hike in 2026, and asset prices have already adjusted. Fixed-rate bonds have sold off, rate-sensitive equities have lagged and parts of the market are already assuming a more hawkish RBA trajectory.

Our view is that much of this repricing has already occurred. We actually think the more probable outcome is no change in 2026 – meaning there is now a reasonable chance of reversal if the market re-calibrates back toward a steady policy path.

• We believe the most important objective is to keep a portfolio resilient across a wide range of economic outcomes. Diversification across interest-rate exposures, equity styles, and asset classes is what delivers this.