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September Seasonality figures

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September Seasonality figures

Do the figures you quote for average loss and percentage of times the ASX or other indices fall in September take account of the significant dividends that are paid out during the month? Just wondering whether September truly deserves it reputation. Thanks and keep up the good work. Peter

Answer

Hi Peter,

The numbers we quote for the ASX don’t include dividends, but September also has a very compelling negative bias for the US S&P 500 where dividends/yield are far less relevant:

  • Since 1950, the index has declined by an average of –0.6% in September ranking it the weakest month on average.
  • Also, since 1950, only about 44% of Septembers have ended with positive returns for the S&P 500 – the lowest positivity rate of any month.
  • Over the last decade, the average September return has leaned slightly worse, at around –2.0%.

MM doesn’t let seasonality dictate our portfolio positioning, but we are conscious of it, especially when we are looking to move up/down the risk curve. i.e. with September being a seasonally weak month, we can often adopt a patient stance towards buying but thats about the extent of it.

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ASX200 Seasonality Chart – Source Bloomberg
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