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World Markets

Hi guys, I suspect you'll be getting a fair few questions this week in regards to independence day. Would you mind including your thoughts and best guesses for various indices please. The last couple of months has been brutal for my account with the huge whipsawing and it would be good to have a 2nd opinion. I have largely agreed with you so far that the lows were in a few weeks ago and a big sell off on Wednesday was likely. I was surprised by the run up across various indices over this week, which to me suggests that large holders were prepared to put their cash to work and were confident that the tariffs would be short lived. Currently it still early Thursday morning, but the ASX200 seems to be holding above last months lows which I thought we would be hitting at open. Nasdaq futures have hit new lows again, would that be from tariffs or reallocations as the other US indices seem to holding above previous lows. Similarly, European markets are still well above last years range. Regards, Simon

Answer

Hi,

What a week!

As I’m sure you read on Friday morning, we have adopted a neutral stance towards stocks believing they have further downside short term. The US S&P500, the proxy for global risk assets, looks set to test at least 4-6% lower but that could be all over in a few hours in the current market.

  • Watch for alerts/read reports in the coming weeks (s) we have fairly low cash levels across our portfolios so it will be more a case of improving the quality of holdings, and positioning for the other side.
  • The correction locally sits at 11% with another 4% on Monday to start at least with the Nasdaq now down ~20% post the “Liberation Day” announcements from the Rose Garden.
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US S&P500 Index
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