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Copper and Aluminium Outlook for 2025+

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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Copper and Aluminium Outlook for 2025+

Hi James and team, Thank you for your excellent work. With Cu now ~ $US5/lb, are you concerned it might be near a top. In 10 years it has hardly punctuated this top. Do you have a view as to where it might be headed over the rest of 2025/2026 and beyond. Similarly, for Aluminium. Also now hovering around US$2,700/tonne or US$1.22/lb. Do the price differentials between the two base metals reflect their demand/supply differences between the two? Thanks!

Answer

Hi Young,

A great question and a subject we have been pondering over recent weeks, recently we have adopted a more bullish scenario toward commodities in general, even as the reached our initial target areas:

  • Copper (Cu): The combination of tariffs, a pick up in the Chinese economy (demand) plus the medium term bullish outlook for global electrification gathering momentum has pushed Cu to fresh 2025 highs this week, and we see at least another 10% on the upside at this stage.
  • Aluminium (Al): has primarily advanced on tariffs concerns and geo-political issues toward primary producers Russia and China. The lightweight metal was one of 50 “critical minerals” identified by the U.S. Geological Survey.

We have a preference for Cu over Al from a supply/demand perspective, but both look strong, even after their recent runs.

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LME Copper ($US/MT) & Aluminium ($US/MT)
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