Reported FY24 overnight ahead of expectations thanks to a cracking 4th quarter, with over half the company’s annual C$905m cash from operations being generated in the period due to strong sales.
- 4Q25 revenue of C$1.18 billion, estimate C$1.08 billion
- Adjusted EPS C$0.36 ~8% ahead of consensus
- Uranium production 6.1 million lbs
- Uranium average realized price per lb C$80.90, ahead of C$78.83 expected.
They released production guidance for 2025 of 22.4Mlb, which is slightly down on the 23.4mlb produced in 2024. We don’t have a good read on what the market was expecting, but we’re not seeing a big uplift which is a positive for prices. Cameco remains over-committed on sales (31-34Mlbs) and is expecting to make the difference up on the spot market (3Mlb) and other purchases (9Mlb, including Inkai). The contract book is gradually improving in terms of achieved pricing, although Cameco is only expecting to achieve a price of US$61/lb in 2025 if the spot price averages US$80/lb.
No surprise, but Cameco is keeping to its bullish narrative on the outlook for the uranium market, highlighting the rising level of uncovered requirements from US and non-US utilities from 2027, and questioning where the uranium supply to meet this demand is going to come from.
We remain long and bullish CCJ US
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