Hi Tony,
As we can see from the chart the market indeed initially liked what it saw in MMS’s result, the numbers were solid and broadly in line with expectations, however in the earnings call post the result, the CEO was questioned on the first 8 weeks of trading, saying….Yeah, look, I think the start of the new financial year has been pretty consistent with what we saw in June. So, as alluded to, obviously, we think the economic conditions, macro conditions, remain similar.
The latter part of FY24 was tougher for these companies, and those comments imply FY25 has started in the same way, i.e. they are not experiencing any real recovery. That forced analysts to rejig their numbers, with consensus earnings per share (EPS) downgrades the result. On that same day, Smart Group (SIQ) and SG Fleet (SGF) were also sold off, but in the case of SIQ, they reported the following day ahead of expectations + they’ve started FY25 better than peers. We own SIQ and think their result and trading update was superior to both MMS & SGF, and they should outperform from here.