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Currencies

The $US reversed further gains late last week in an encouraging sign for risk assets, but it’s likely to enjoy a safety bid this morning, e.g. the Aussie has opened down -0.45% versus the $US.

  • We remain net bearish towards the $US, but the short-term war in Israel is likely to keep the Greenback firm.
USD
MM is bearish toward the $US over the medium/long term.
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The $US Index

The Euro has corrected back to our targeted 1.05 region, and our preferred scenario is it will regain the strength it exhibited through most of 2023, a great read-through for equities. This morning’s minor -0.25% dip following the events in the Middle East illustrates the likely muted early reaction across financial markets and the Euros underlying strength following the pullback over the last four months.

  • We believe the Euro can test above the 1.20 area in 2024.
MM is medium-term bullish toward the Euro
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Euro (EURUSD)
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