Why did Northern Star (NST) shares fall despite strong Gold?
NST -5.83%: when most gold stocks traded flat or higher, Northern Star struggled following a soft 4Q production update. Gold sales of 426koz in the last quarter, taking their FY23 total to 1.56moz, at the low end of guidance. Costs in the last 3 months were lower than the year’s average of $1,759/oz on an all-in-sustaining basis, though this was at the higher end of guidance. The result is a likely miss to EBITDA expectations when the company reports next month, with the company guiding to around $1,225mn on an underlying basis. Guidance was also at the lower end of expectations, expecting costs to be around flat into FY24, while sales are expected to climb marginally to 1.6-1.75moz while the company plans to spend $1.15-1.25b on capex. While it’s a disappointing update, Northern Star is a solid gold mining company earning reasonable margins at current prices while guidance looks on the conservative side. We would be interested in NST if it continues to underperform our current gold exposure in EVN and NCM.
