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Viewpoint: Bullish

Mike Cannon-Brookes and the company’s exit plans from coal mean the electricity provider is being controlled by a very different mandate from most businesses on the ASX. As we’ve said previously we applaud the transition by all companies to a greener Australia but from a short-term valuation perspective it can be tricky and this is very much the case…

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US stocks are hovering over 8% above their monthly low as we approach the Fed’s next rate decision, we feel the markets factoring in some pretty hawkish news but that’s exactly what it’s likely to receive however moving forward we believe there’s a strong possibility of a relief rally once the news is behind us plus of course, the market is positioned bearishly.

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WDS is back within 2% of its 2022 high while crude oil is still 20% below its October high, a slight recovery in the oil price, potentially assisted by a softening $US, would likely see WDS head into blue sky territory.

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BHP is trading at the same price as it was in January 2021 although it has paid some extremely attractive dividends along the way. Considering the market’s pricing in a recession for 2023 and lower iron ore prices we feel BHP is performing admirably and at least for now, in our opionion, the path of least resistance is back toward the $45 area.

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The ASX200 continues to climb a wall of worry closing up another +0.5% yesterday, well above the psychological 6800 level while also posting its best close in 6 weeks. The resources drove the market higher with heavyweights Woodside Energy (WDS), BHP Group (BHP), South32 (S32), and Newcrest Mining (NCM) all enjoying a good day at the office. If the banks had…

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ANZ -3.29%: the first of the banks to report full-year results this period, ANZ produced a mixed set of numbers with the market focusing on the negatives. Cash NPAT was a slight beat to expectations at $3.4b, as was the final dividend of 74cps however EPS was a miss at $1.09/sh. Margins have been in focus for the banks with IM climbing 10bps to 1.68%, while the…

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NCM has fallen -29% in 2022, significantly underperforming NST in the process. The stock looks poised to test the $20 region but it hasn’t demonstrated the strength to compel us to increase our holding in the Flagship Growth Portfolio.

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NST has demonstrated its ability to rally if/when we see signs of encouragement on the interest rate front – just as we are today. A sharp rally towards $10-11 wouldn’t surprise into a Christmas, i.e. a +20% move.

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US stocks tried but failed to rally in the face of disappointing earnings numbers from market heavyweights Alphabet (GOOGL US) and Microsoft (MSFT US) with both stocks getting clobbered, delivering noticeable negative sentiment across the whole Tech Sector in the process.

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The ASX200 is starting to shrug off bad news as was evident yesterday when the local index gained +0.2% in the face of bearish news on both the Australian economy and the US corporate front:

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