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Viewpoint: Bullish

US indices rallied back towards their 4-month highs overnight led by tech as optimism increased that the Fed might start to ease off with rate hikes over the coming months.

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AUB rallied another +0.7% yesterday on a down day for the ASX, the Insurance broker AUB continues to trade strongly having rewarded investors who backed its $350mn capital raise at $19.50, back in June, to fund the acquisition of Tysers for $880mn. We like this insurance business which focuses on equity-based risk management, insurance…

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US stocks struggled overnight in face of the major news over the coming days i.e. the FOMC rate decision and reports from the likes of Alphabet (GOOGL US) and Meta Platforms (META US). Considering the strength over recent weeks it’s not surprising we’re seeing some caution being adopted into these important releases with a -2.1% dip by the NASDAQ leading the weakness.

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LYC +6.94%: the rare earths company put out some impressive 2Q production numbers, rebounding from a weak start to the year to beat expectations. Revenue was up 15% vs 2Q22 while total REO production was 27% higher than the 1st quarter as water supply shortages subsided. The company said the average selling price was in line with the prior quarter, however, demand…

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Chinese equities have enjoyed a 4 week-long rally which has a bull market beckoning as China stock traders return to work this morning. The latest data has shown that consumption has rebounded strongly as the country reopens suggesting a sustained economic recovery has commenced, clearly good news for stocks after their 41% plunge from early 2021 highs. This is one upside move we would not fade as Beijing usually gets its way and they want a return to growth.

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The Pound has rallied strongly since its panic-like sell-off last September, some consolidation feels likely but any pullbacks under 1.20 should represent good buying opportunities in our opinion.

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Both silver and gold have enjoyed a strong start to 2023 helped by the weak $US, our big picture view is we’re witnessing just the beginning of a significant advance by precious metals with the risk/reward attractive into any dips. Gold ended last week basically unchanged as its upside momentum slows, considering MM’s longer-term outlook…

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The UK FTSE has posted multi-year highs in January with Europe’s main index the EURO STOXX 50 not far behind which is impressive considering the awful war raging in Ukraine. Stocks across the region are trading as if interest rates aren’t going much higher and the war will end soon – let’s hope they are correct!

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Friday saw US equities rally on further buying in the influential tech sector which over the week alone gained a solid +4.7%, the underlying trend through reporting season has been “not too bad” is good enough which has enabled the S&P500 to close out last week at a 7 week high.

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The ASX200 continues to enjoy an extremely strong start to January but it is starting to feel tired around the 7500 area as some of the large caps that have led the index higher over the last 4 weeks run out of steam e.g. last week  BHP Group (BHP), Westpac (WBC) and CSL Ltd (CSL) all edged lower.

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