The ASX200 produced another solid performance on Friday to close up 0.6% following an awful session on Wall Street which saw the Dow fall over 500-points and the tech based NASDAQ plunge more than 4% as earnings misses by Meta Platforms (FB US) -26.4% and Spotify (SPOT US) -16.8% crushed optimism that the worst was largely behind the growth stocks. Over previous weeks we had already seen household names Netflix (NFLX US) and PayPal (PYPL US) hammered taking their recent corrections to more than 40% as earnings and outlook misses compounded the already negative sentiment towards tech as bond yields rose. The maths are easy when stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL US) & Amazon (AMZN US) beat expectations they rally around 10-15% whereas those that miss, and there are more of them, are plunging 20-40%!
The ASX200 enjoyed a selling reprieve on Friday which allowed the market to recover over half of the weeks losses but one days bounce most definitely doesn’t herald an end to the months 11.3% plunge, at this stage we feel another test of 6700 is the more probable scenario before we can see a more sustained recovery i.e. the markets looking for as opposed to found a low.
The penultimate session for January did see almost 85% of stocks rally on a day which felt like a definite relief rally but ideally we would like to see the market exhibit some strength into “bad news” before MM would feel confident we had seen the low for Q1.
Friday saw the ASX200 unceremoniously smacked to the bottom of the last 6-months trading range as the fallout from rising inflation / bond yields continued to gather momentum. Only 6% of the ASX200 managed to close up on the day as the unrelenting selling washed through all 11-sectors, the best group on ground still fell by over 1% illustrating the broad based nature of the market capitulation. Aside from the sheer weight of selling a couple things did catch our attention:
The ASX200 remains locked in on the 7400 area but its noticeable how much easier over recent weeks it can endure strong down days although lower volumes play a role as some lucky people enjoy extended holidays, this will probably return to normal next week and beyond. Overall the index finished the week down 60-points with strength in energy, resources and insurance stocks being unable to hold the market in positive territory amidst broad based selling.
Bond yields have dominated 2022 so far as they grind higher exerting pressure on growth names like tech while value stocks, which generally benefit from economic expansion, have commenced the year on the front foot, something the English cricket time feels unable to do. We believe there’s more fuel in this tank but the risk / reward is diminishing fast.
The ASX200 failed to capitalise on a few promising starts last week with CSL’s huge capital raise the main difference between a steady and the eventual disappointing week. On the sector front the value names dominated the winners enclosure led by the resources stocks while the healthcare & tech stocks had a shocker, ironically it had nothing to do with bond yields which actually drifted through the week even after the UK surprised many by hiking interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25%.
The ASX200 rallied over 1.5% last week with all 11 sectors closing in positive territory although it was surprisingly the defensives which led the line i.e. Consumer Staples, Utilities and Real Estate names. It was unusual to see the likes of tech, materials and financials dragging the chain when the market enjoyed such solid gains. At this stage there’s nothing more sinister than some sector reversion / catch up at play towards year end but we are watching out for investors de-risking into 2022.
The ASX200 experienced an extremely choppy week which saw it eventually close down 0.5%, it felt worse most of the time as the market demonstrated a penchant to fall on the whiff of bad virus news whereas a solid night on Wall Street only led to relatively muted local gains. Under the hood the Financials & Resources Sectors were the only 2 sectors to deliver positive returns by Friday as economic optimism slowly returned to money markets as opposed to the broad equity market which clearly remembers the impact of the original COVID & Delta breakouts all too well.
Stocks opened slightly higher on Friday and with the US settling into its Thanksgiving long weekend everything was pointing to a low volume quiet day, how things changed over the ensuing hours - we’ve repeatedly said the market will breakout when least expected and that’s one call we certainly got right - just not the direction we were after:
A small bounce on Friday saw the ASX200 close out the week down 0.6%, a pretty good effort considering Commonwealth Bank (CBA) plunged over $10 taking the influential Banking Sector along for the ride – it doesn’t matter how big or powerful you are the markets not tolerating mediocrity when companies report. With ongoing weakness by a number of resources stocks it was left to the growth sector, primarily IT and healthcare to provide some backbone to the local index – this was almost a mirror image of last week’s sector performance which probably helps explain why the ASX200 has gone nowhere for many weeks.
Friday saw the AX200 close out the week little changed courtesy of a 4.7% rally by the Resources Sector, the other 10 sectors all declined over the week with the interest rate sensitive Healthcare, Real Estate and IT Sectors worst on ground. The local index actually felt worse last week due to the broad based nature of the selling but we’re still only 2.5% below Augusts all-time high. We witnessed another failed attempt on the 7475 resistance level on Friday, if / when we close above 7480 don’t be short is the message I would pass on to traders.
The ASX200 enjoyed a selling reprieve on Friday which allowed the market to recover over half of the weeks losses but one days bounce most definitely doesn’t herald an end to the months 11.3% plunge, at this stage we feel another test of 6700 is the more probable scenario before we can see a more sustained recovery i.e. the markets looking for as opposed to found a low.
The penultimate session for January did see almost 85% of stocks rally on a day which felt like a definite relief rally but ideally we would like to see the market exhibit some strength into “bad news” before MM would feel confident we had seen the low for Q1.
Friday saw the ASX200 unceremoniously smacked to the bottom of the last 6-months trading range as the fallout from rising inflation / bond yields continued to gather momentum. Only 6% of the ASX200 managed to close up on the day as the unrelenting selling washed through all 11-sectors, the best group on ground still fell by over 1% illustrating the broad based nature of the market capitulation. Aside from the sheer weight of selling a couple things did catch our attention:
The ASX200 remains locked in on the 7400 area but its noticeable how much easier over recent weeks it can endure strong down days although lower volumes play a role as some lucky people enjoy extended holidays, this will probably return to normal next week and beyond. Overall the index finished the week down 60-points with strength in energy, resources and insurance stocks being unable to hold the market in positive territory amidst broad based selling.
Bond yields have dominated 2022 so far as they grind higher exerting pressure on growth names like tech while value stocks, which generally benefit from economic expansion, have commenced the year on the front foot, something the English cricket time feels unable to do. We believe there’s more fuel in this tank but the risk / reward is diminishing fast.
The ASX200 failed to capitalise on a few promising starts last week with CSL’s huge capital raise the main difference between a steady and the eventual disappointing week. On the sector front the value names dominated the winners enclosure led by the resources stocks while the healthcare & tech stocks had a shocker, ironically it had nothing to do with bond yields which actually drifted through the week even after the UK surprised many by hiking interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25%.
The ASX200 rallied over 1.5% last week with all 11 sectors closing in positive territory although it was surprisingly the defensives which led the line i.e. Consumer Staples, Utilities and Real Estate names. It was unusual to see the likes of tech, materials and financials dragging the chain when the market enjoyed such solid gains. At this stage there’s nothing more sinister than some sector reversion / catch up at play towards year end but we are watching out for investors de-risking into 2022.
The ASX200 experienced an extremely choppy week which saw it eventually close down 0.5%, it felt worse most of the time as the market demonstrated a penchant to fall on the whiff of bad virus news whereas a solid night on Wall Street only led to relatively muted local gains. Under the hood the Financials & Resources Sectors were the only 2 sectors to deliver positive returns by Friday as economic optimism slowly returned to money markets as opposed to the broad equity market which clearly remembers the impact of the original COVID & Delta breakouts all too well.
Stocks opened slightly higher on Friday and with the US settling into its Thanksgiving long weekend everything was pointing to a low volume quiet day, how things changed over the ensuing hours - we’ve repeatedly said the market will breakout when least expected and that’s one call we certainly got right - just not the direction we were after:
A small bounce on Friday saw the ASX200 close out the week down 0.6%, a pretty good effort considering Commonwealth Bank (CBA) plunged over $10 taking the influential Banking Sector along for the ride – it doesn’t matter how big or powerful you are the markets not tolerating mediocrity when companies report. With ongoing weakness by a number of resources stocks it was left to the growth sector, primarily IT and healthcare to provide some backbone to the local index – this was almost a mirror image of last week’s sector performance which probably helps explain why the ASX200 has gone nowhere for many weeks.
Friday saw the AX200 close out the week little changed courtesy of a 4.7% rally by the Resources Sector, the other 10 sectors all declined over the week with the interest rate sensitive Healthcare, Real Estate and IT Sectors worst on ground. The local index actually felt worse last week due to the broad based nature of the selling but we’re still only 2.5% below Augusts all-time high. We witnessed another failed attempt on the 7475 resistance level on Friday, if / when we close above 7480 don’t be short is the message I would pass on to traders.
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