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Morning report

What Matters Today : Whose correct, iron ore or RIO, BHP et al?

The ASX200 closed up 0.25% yesterday as it continued to grind higher, the speed of its ascent is reminiscent of my kids getting ready for school but there’s no signs of failure at this point in time – our preferred scenario remains a classic seasonal pullback through May & June but the bulls still remain in control at this juncture with 55% of stock rallying on Thursday, led by strength in Healthcare & IT stocks both of which prefer a lower bond yield environment.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Market fails to embrace M&A activity

The ASX200 continues to oscillate around the psychological 7000 level ignoring both good and bad news over recent sessions. Yesterday we saw further positive M&A news from both Bingo (BIN) & Tabcorp (TAH) plus an iron ore sector continuing to recover strongly but disappointingly with over half of the ASX falling the underlying index was unable to register a gain for the day – the stock / sector rotation continues.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Is lumber painting a picture?

The ASX200 slipped lower on Monday failing to take any cheer from a strong end to last week by overseas markets, the session felt like a drift lower on lack of interest with less than 30% of stocks managing to close in positive territory. With the exception of some solid gains by the iron ore names, following a strong session by the bulk commodity, nothing particularly caught our attention on a day where a disappointing 10 out of 11 of the market sectors closed lower.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: No change as stocks hover at all-time highs

Last week saw the ASX200 close basically unchanged although it was fairly choppy from a day to day perspective but with Healthcare stocks picking up the slack in IT and Energy the net result to the index was extremely small. Stock / sector rotation continues to dominate the Australian market as we approach the infamous May – the phrase “sell in May & go away” is founded on hard seasonal facts - over the last decade, while the market was rallying, the average return for May was -3% and June -1.7%.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Where do we like Energy stocks?

The ASX200 rallied strongly on Thursday after a fairly lacklustre start ultimately posting a solid +0.8% gain taking the market to within striking distance of its 2021 high. Gains were again broad based with almost 70% of the market closing up while heavyweights Commonwealth Bank (CBA), CSL Ltd (CSL) and BHP Group (BHP) all outperformed on the day.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: the ASX200 struggles above 7000

The ASX200 had a bad day at the office yesterday underperforming most global indices as nerves appeared to flicker across investors headlights – the local indexes largest decline in April unfolded courtesy of some broad based selling which saw over 65% of stocks fall while on the sector level only the Telcos closed in positive territory.
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MM continues to believe the ASX200 is poised for a pullback
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MM feels that local bond yields will be notably higher in the next few years
Our “best guess” is still the US 10-year bonds will continue to consolidate between 1.3 and 1.8% over the coming months
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IVV
MM is cautious US stocks around current all-time highs
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IWM
MM is cautious US small caps around current levels
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IEU
MM believes European stocks will outperform the US over the months ahead
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USD
MM remains bearish the $US ultimately looking for new lows ~88
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MM is now neutral copper into fresh 2021 highs
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MM is neutral iron ore short term
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MM remains bearish Bitcoin initially looking for another +20% downside
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MM remains bullish the VIX from sub 20
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MM will switch bearish the NASDAQ sub 13,650
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today : Whose correct, iron ore or RIO, BHP et al?

The ASX200 closed up 0.25% yesterday as it continued to grind higher, the speed of its ascent is reminiscent of my kids getting ready for school but there’s no signs of failure at this point in time – our preferred scenario remains a classic seasonal pullback through May & June but the bulls still remain in control at this juncture with 55% of stock rallying on Thursday, led by strength in Healthcare & IT stocks both of which prefer a lower bond yield environment.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Real Estate loves low interest rates

The ASX200 rallied solidly on Wednesday embracing what was surprisingly benign inflation data which suggests the RBA will be able to hold off longer than expected before it pulls the trigger on rate hikes.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Market fails to embrace M&A activity

The ASX200 continues to oscillate around the psychological 7000 level ignoring both good and bad news over recent sessions. Yesterday we saw further positive M&A news from both Bingo (BIN) & Tabcorp (TAH) plus an iron ore sector continuing to recover strongly but disappointingly with over half of the ASX falling the underlying index was unable to register a gain for the day – the stock / sector rotation continues.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Is lumber painting a picture?

The ASX200 slipped lower on Monday failing to take any cheer from a strong end to last week by overseas markets, the session felt like a drift lower on lack of interest with less than 30% of stocks managing to close in positive territory. With the exception of some solid gains by the iron ore names, following a strong session by the bulk commodity, nothing particularly caught our attention on a day where a disappointing 10 out of 11 of the market sectors closed lower.

Morning report

Macro Monday: No change as stocks hover at all-time highs

Last week saw the ASX200 close basically unchanged although it was fairly choppy from a day to day perspective but with Healthcare stocks picking up the slack in IT and Energy the net result to the index was extremely small. Stock / sector rotation continues to dominate the Australian market as we approach the infamous May – the phrase “sell in May & go away” is founded on hard seasonal facts - over the last decade, while the market was rallying, the average return for May was -3% and June -1.7%.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Where do we like Energy stocks?

The ASX200 rallied strongly on Thursday after a fairly lacklustre start ultimately posting a solid +0.8% gain taking the market to within striking distance of its 2021 high. Gains were again broad based with almost 70% of the market closing up while heavyweights Commonwealth Bank (CBA), CSL Ltd (CSL) and BHP Group (BHP) all outperformed on the day.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: the ASX200 struggles above 7000

The ASX200 had a bad day at the office yesterday underperforming most global indices as nerves appeared to flicker across investors headlights – the local indexes largest decline in April unfolded courtesy of some broad based selling which saw over 65% of stocks fall while on the sector level only the Telcos closed in positive territory.

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