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The ASX200 closed unchanged on Thursday with no lead from overseas markets; most local traders simply sat back and watched the Guzman y Gomez (GYG) IPO commence trading. By the end of the day, GYG was up +36%, valuing the Mexican fast food chain at over $3bn. At MM, we thought it would open strongly, but that was above our bullish expectations. As we said yesterday, let’s hope this reignites some confidence in both local capital markets and stocks in general.

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX consolidates, Miners show some fight

While the market ultimately ended down a touch, there was some interesting price action intra-day in certain sectors, with the retailers well bid early on only to give up gains, Gold stocks rallied defying a recent pullback in bullion, while many of the miners recovered nicely from early weakness i.e. some signs playing out that recent trends may be approaching an inflexion point.

The Match Out Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Can Kamala Harris give hope to EV-related stocks?

Kamala Harris looks almost sure to be the Democratic candidate to take on Trump on November 5th. She will be a more challenging adversary than Biden, but the betting odds still say she has a mountain to climb over the coming months. We will look at what the “Trump Trade” means for some ASX names later this week, but one sector that continues to dive lower with Trump set to reverse the Biden administration's new climate policies is the EV-related names. However, with Harris having a more than 40% chance to win in November, we thought the sector might see at least some short-covering, but it's not been evident so far this week.

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Morning report

What Matters Today: Does MM see value in the Retail Sector?

European markets bounced strongly overnight, with the EURO STOXX 50 closing up +1.45% as dip buyers waded back into US futures. US stocks rebounded following their worst week since April as investors embraced a stronger Democratic candidate. This enabled them to focus on the looming major earnings reports, with Tesla and Alphabet facing the music on Tuesday. The political news is unlikely to materially impact the market unless Harris can dent Trump's apparent significant lead, something Biden was unlikely ever to do. By the close, the S&P500 had risen the most since June, with the “Magnificent Seven” up around 2.5% while the small-cap Russell 2000 added +1.7%. Crowdstrike (CRWD US) fell another 13% as the magnitude of the weekend blackout hit home and, of course, the prospect of litigation on the horizon.

what matters today Market Matters
Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX tracks back to support, Retailers bounce, S32 hit

The ASX 200 came back and re-tested the prior breakout area today at 7900 (low of 7902), which in theory should provide a decent level of support given it took over 4-months and 4 failed attempts to leap over the milestone, which finally came on the 11th July. While only early days, we may well be seeing the formation of a new trading range, and the risk/reward stacks up to be a buyer ~7900, using 7850 as a point to raise the white flag, given a move through that level suggests the recent run towards 8100 was a false break. All very micro and index-orientated, but important nonetheless to determine whether the general market is in a risk-on or risk-off position. For now, support held, and we saw buying come in by the close.

The Match Out Market Matters
Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Forget Y2K; we’ve got July 24!

The ASX200 managed to mildly higher last week, but it certainly felt worse after Friday's sharp drop, and there is more to come on Monday. While the press rotates its coverage between the largest IT outage in history and if/when Joe Biden will exit the November presidential race, the stock market had its own pronounced rotation underway. As financial markets priced in a Fed interest rate pivot come September, investors decided it was time to rejig portfolios in earnest – something MM has been discussing for a few weeks. On the ASX, we saw the rate of the sensitive/defensive sectors advance, led by real estate, at +1.7%, while the Materials and Tech Sectors dropped 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively. The moves were more pronounced on the stock level

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX falls 64pts, major IT outage across the country

A soft session played out on Friday, with the ASX down 64pts/0.81% at 7971, though we did see a decent recovery from the lows (up around 45pts),perhaps a result of a major IT issue caused by global Cyber Security firm CrowdStrike that impacted many of us, including the ASX. Short CrowdStrike, long Microsoft might be the play tonight! 

The Match Out Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Will MM like infrastructure stocks if the RBA cuts interest rates?

The Dow Jones tumbled over 500 points on Thursday night, although it's the only major US index on track to finish the week higher. As we enter the gauntlet of the seasonally weakest two months, there's room for further downside in the coming weeks, with markets trading at lofty valuations around all-time highs. With stocks already factoring in three rate cuts into January, there is room for disappointment. Ironically, Nvidia (NVDA US) and Meta Platforms (META US) bounced overnight after their recent sharp falls leaving the sellers to focus on the broad market.

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Afternoon report

The Match Out: Buyers put their cue in the rack, for today at least, ASX dips

Tech was knocked overnight and the trend continued locally today with the rotation out of the hotter stocks, into some of the more ‘boring’ sectors, while property took a breather amidst continued strength in employment which prompted interest rate traders to increase the odds for a hike.

The Match Out Market Matters
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