Afternoon report 11/12/2025 16:56

The Match Out: ASX up (just), finishes well off highs, Tech weighs again

The ASX was mildly higher by the close, although it gave back most of the early Fed inspired bump to finish ~65pts below the morning peak. Most support came from the miners after the Federal Reserve increased their growth forecast and cut rates, though weakness across tech persisted after Oracle sank ~10% in after-hours trade, with a soft cloud result raising questions about the durability of AI-linked spending - Nasdaq futures slid 1.1% during our time zone.

Alerts 11/12/2025 16:13

Trade Alerts – International Equities Portfolio

We are two new positions to the International Equities Portfolio

Alerts 11/12/2025 10:12

Trade Alerts – Active Growth & Income Portfolios

We are making changes across two portfolios

Morning report 11/12/2025 10:00

What Matters Today: Are the retailers getting oversold?

The ASX200 closed marginally lower on Wednesday, with the story remaining very much the same at the sector level ahead of the Fed: the materials sector was the best performer, advancing +1.3%, while tech again carried the wooden spoon, retreating +1.5%. This time it was the lithium and gold stocks that dominated the winners' enclosure, with the big iron ore miners adding some useful support. Miners found support from firmer commodity prices, stronger-than-expected China inflation data, and renewed optimism that a Fed easing cycle will ultimately underpin demand.

Afternoon report 10/12/2025 17:00

The Match Out: ASX drifts after RBA’s hawkish hold

The ASX drifted through the session with little conviction as investors balanced a hawkish hold RBA against anticipation for tomorrow morning’s US Federal Reserve decision. With Michele Bullock signalling that rate cuts are off the table for the foreseeable future yesterday, the market was unsettled and interest rate sensitive stocks continued to weigh, though a huge effort from gold stocks and broader materials provided much needed support for the index to close only just lower.

Morning report 10/12/2025 09:49

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA follows the script with a hawkish twist

The ASX 200 dropped 0.5% on Tuesday after the RBA held rates steady as expected, but the tone of the statement shifted the decision into a decidedly “hawkish hold”. Michele Bullock's comments pushed bond yields to their highest level since late 2024 and the $A back to its 2025 highs, leaving stocks swimming against the tide ahead of the Fed decision on Thursday.

Afternoon report 09/12/2025 17:09

The Match Out: ASX lower as RBA takes the prospect of cuts off the table

The ASX lost ground into the close on Tuesday after RBA governor Michele Bullock signaled that rate cuts are off the table for the foreseeable future, with upside risks to inflation re-emerging. The main board, which had hovered modestly lower for most of the session, accelerated its decline after the post-meeting press conference as a more hawkish tone from the RBA supported the Australian dollar, while tech stocks led the local losses.

Morning report 09/12/2025 09:31

What Matters Today: With NSR receiving a binding offer, is it still too early to jump back into real estate?

The ASX 200 opened weaker on Monday before trading in another narrow range, eventually finishing the session down just -0.1%. Outside of another impressive session for the lithium stocks, it was a fairly non-committal session with investors and traders alike happy to sit on the sidelines ahead of the RBA today and Fed on Thursday - credit markets are still expecting no change locally and a 0.25% cut in the US, but it’s the accompanying rhetoric that will determine where stocks finish the week.

Afternoon report 08/12/2025 17:20

The Match Out: ASX slips ahead of RBA Call, National Storage (NSR) gets the nod for takeover

The ASX finished lower as investors moved to the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s RBA policy decision, with sentiment soft despite a modestly positive lead from Wall Street and little in the way of corporate news flow to drive individual names. Lithium names were a bright spot following last week’s sector upgrade however this was offset by gold stocks which retreated as bullion eased over the weekend.

Morning report 08/12/2025 09:48

Macro Monday: The rising cost of debt could be AI’s big hurdle in 2026

Wall Street is lending incredible sums of money as the AI revolution explodes, even as it wrestles with how to shield itself from a potential bubble of its own making. As we’ve shown before, the cost of protecting Oracle Corp. debt against default has risen to the highest since the GFC. The sheer fact that risk levels are comparable to the tumultuous times back in 2007/8 shows how much money is at stake. Mega offerings from tech behemoths, including Oracle, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet, have already helped push global bond issuance well over $US6 trillion in 2025.