The Match Out: ASX up, RBA hold rates, downplays pre-Christmas cut

No change as expected today from the RBA with rates staying at 4.35%. They talked to the pace of disinflation slowing, while they maintained its previous guidance that it was not “ruling anything in or out” when it came to interest rates, the board said policy would need to be “sufficiently restrictive” until the board was confident inflation was “moving sustainably towards the target range”. This view is at odds with the market, Interest rate futures fully pricing in a cut before Christmas as the table below shows (29bps priced in), and an interest rate of ~3.5% by the end of FY25. The new press conference format provided a bit more meat on the bones of this view, and the Governor even had a crack at explaining volatility in equities over the past 48 hours, saying that one employment print in the US shouldn’t have us running for the hills…not bad advice from Governor Bullock!

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Alerts 14/11/2025 09:53

Trade Alert – Active Growth Portfolio

We are making two changes to the growth portfolio today.

Morning report 14/11/2025 09:39

ETF Friday: Navigating the volatile resources through the lens of ETFs

Volatility is on the increase in equities, but it's already been high in recent months across the commodity markets, from precious metals to lithium and copper. The moves have been significant as investors and traders have battled with the usual supply and demand fundamentals, combined with the almost random-like comments coming out of the Whitehouse. However, while the resources sector hasn’t been for the fainthearted, it has outperformed in 2025, with the Materials Index up 24% year-to-date, while the previously much-loved tech space is down 11%. This morning, we updated our views across 6 commodities using related ETFs as the need to keep our finger on the pulse increases.

Afternoon report 13/11/2025 17:06

The Match Out: Stronger employment sniffs out chance of a rate cut this year, DroneShield whacked as CEO shows no faith

The ASX200 dropped sharply today, falling to a ten-week low after a strong jobs report dashed hopes of near-term RBA rate cuts, sending the rate-sensitive real estate and tech sectors down. The roaring gold sector provided a buffer, while the psychological 8700 level proved itself as a support, with a broad ~55pt rally softening the blow into the close.

Morning report 13/11/2025 10:04

What Matters Today: The New Energy Stack for AI

The ASX200 closed down 0.2% on Wednesday, reversing early gains and closing below the psychological 8800 level. Over 50% of the main board closed higher, but another 3% drop by CBA was enough to drag the index lower, with Australia's largest bank now over 17% below its June high.

Afternoon report 13/11/2025 08:38

The Match Out: ASX falls late, Min Res rips on asset sale

The ASX finished lower today with decent sessions from miners and energy stocks more than offset by weakness in technology and financials, as selling in CBA struck again, capping broader momentum.

Morning report 12/11/2025 09:36

Portfolio Positioning: CBA drags the ASX into the red all on its own

The ASX200 started Tuesday in an encouraging fashion, up ~0.5%, as the US government neared a reopening deal, before the index reversed to close down 17 points, or 0.2%. The weakness was almost entirely down to CBA, even though winners outstripped losers by 2:1, when the ASX's largest stock tumbles 6.6%, the local bourse is going to struggle to close higher.

Afternoon report 11/11/2025 17:22

The Match Out: CBA sinks the ASX on soft quarterly

The ASX200 wavered through Tuesday’s session, opening up strongly after steps toward a resolution for the U.S government shutdown saw U.S markets rip overnight.

Morning report 11/11/2025 09:45

What Matters Today: The unheralded mining services names continue to kick goals

The ASX 200 rallied strongly on Monday, closing up +0.8% with 70% of the main board finishing higher. The local bourse enjoyed a strong tailwind from US futures and commodity prices as risk markets bounced on the news of the imminent end to the US government shutdown.

Afternoon report 10/11/2025 16:49

The Match Out: ASX bounces, ANZ climbs despite profit miss

A constructive start to the week underpinned by strength in US Futures on news the Govt shutdown is nearing an end – that supported the risk on trade with the ASX building on gains as the session progressed, fueled by good buying in tech, Gold and Uranium.

Morning report 10/11/2025 09:49

Macro Monday: The market’s animal spirits are waning

The stock market didn’t crash last week, but after 7-months of “risk-on” enthusiasm, cracks have started to emerge. Rich valuations and fresh doubts over the real-world payoff of AI dragged US tech stocks to their worst week since April.