The Match Out: ASX up, RBA hold rates, downplays pre-Christmas cut

No change as expected today from the RBA with rates staying at 4.35%. They talked to the pace of disinflation slowing, while they maintained its previous guidance that it was not “ruling anything in or out” when it came to interest rates, the board said policy would need to be “sufficiently restrictive” until the board was confident inflation was “moving sustainably towards the target range”. This view is at odds with the market, Interest rate futures fully pricing in a cut before Christmas as the table below shows (29bps priced in), and an interest rate of ~3.5% by the end of FY25. The new press conference format provided a bit more meat on the bones of this view, and the Governor even had a crack at explaining volatility in equities over the past 48 hours, saying that one employment print in the US shouldn’t have us running for the hills…not bad advice from Governor Bullock!

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Morning report 20/11/2025 10:04

What Matters Today: Where do earnings meet valuations in the ASX tech sector?

The ASX 200 posted another 5-month low on Wednesday as the banks dragged the index down by 0.25%, offsetting further gains in the materials and energy sectors. Concerns over upcoming US jobs data and Nvidia’s earnings, now the world’s largest stock, cast a long shadow over an otherwise comparatively quiet Australian market, which saw less than 3% of the main board move in either direction by more than 5%.

Afternoon report 19/11/2025 16:58

The Match Out: ASX drifts lower ahead of key Nvidia earnings result

The local market spent the morning stabilising after yesterday’s selloff, with Nvidia’s earnings result tomorrow morning remaining in the focus. Strength across energy, gold and defensive names helped the market keep its head above water for most of the morning, until softness prevailed into the close as investors took risk off the table with a volatile session likely in store for tomorrow.

Alerts 19/11/2025 16:22

Trade Alert – International Equities Portfolio

We are taking a 50%+ profit on a healthcare stock

Morning report 19/11/2025 09:50

Portfolio Positioning: ASX tech stocks drag the market back to its June lows

The ASX200 was unceremoniously clobbered over 160-points on Tuesday, ending the brutal session at its lowest level in five months - the index has now fallen by more than 7% from its October high.

Afternoon report 18/11/2025 17:09

The Match Out: ASX whacked as high-value stocks take a hit. JHX jumps on earnings upgrade

The ASX200 copped a heavy bout of selling today, sliding to a five-month low of 8444 as the market buckled under the weight of RBA inflation commentary this morning, and a thumping sell-off in tech as traders trimmed positions ahead of Nvidia’s make-or-break earnings after-market Thursday morning our time.

Morning report 18/11/2025 09:35

What Matters Today: Looking for new ideas amongst the financials after recent volatility

The ASX 200 managed to eke out a small gain on Monday after starting the session on the back foot. Buying crept in throughout the day, reversing an initial 0.5% drop to close marginally higher, helped by firm US futures. Tech and energy stocks led the gains through a relatively quiet session, which only saw 3% of the main board move by over 5%.

Afternoon report 17/11/2025 17:02

The Match Out: ASX snaps 4 day losing streak by a whisker

The local market looked set for another down day and its fifth straight in the red, before a strong midday rally turned sentiment around. After a ~200-point rout over the past week, the buy-the-dip mentality finally re-emerged as US futures rose, driving the index back into positive territory – albeit, only just.

Morning report 17/11/2025 09:46

Macro Monday: Cracks appear in the “AI Trade” ahead of Nvidia results

Wall Street may have notched its worst day in over a month on Thursday, but one category of assets has fared far worse this week — meme stocks. One painful example is NuScale Power (SMR US), a popular stock in the US used to play the power generation buildout theme for AI data centres, which plummeted ~50% last week, extending its losses from mid-October.

Weekend report 15/11/2025 09:47

Weekend Q&A: Corporate Australia and the Fed steal the ASX’s “Mojo”

The ASX 200 ended the week down 1.5% trading at its lowest level since July, with the vast majority of the damage unfolding on Friday. The week ended with the local market suffering its worst day in 10 weeks amid a global pullback in risk assets. Hawkish comments by Fed officials on Thursday night dialled back expectations that they would cut rates in December, sending rate-sensitive stocks lower. The tech, financial, and real estate sectors were the worst performers, while the materials and energy names again led the line, gaining 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively

Afternoon report 14/11/2025 17:34

The Match Out: ASX suffers worst week since March

The Australian market copped another heavy bout of selling today, with sentiment rattled by growing fears that interest rates in both the US and Australia aren’t coming down any time soon. The move follows Wall Street’s largest one-day fall in a month and caps the ASX’s worst week since March.