The Match Out: ASX up, RBA hold rates, downplays pre-Christmas cut

No change as expected today from the RBA with rates staying at 4.35%. They talked to the pace of disinflation slowing, while they maintained its previous guidance that it was not “ruling anything in or out” when it came to interest rates, the board said policy would need to be “sufficiently restrictive” until the board was confident inflation was “moving sustainably towards the target range”. This view is at odds with the market, Interest rate futures fully pricing in a cut before Christmas as the table below shows (29bps priced in), and an interest rate of ~3.5% by the end of FY25. The new press conference format provided a bit more meat on the bones of this view, and the Governor even had a crack at explaining volatility in equities over the past 48 hours, saying that one employment print in the US shouldn’t have us running for the hills…not bad advice from Governor Bullock!

scroll

OPINION
ACTION

Latest Reports

Afternoon report 13/10/2025 17:13

The Match Out: ASX hit on trade threats, ANZ resets strategy & rallies

The ASX tracked weakness in overseas markets, though we started the day better off, with US Futures recovering from the get-go, finding solace from DJT’s more conciliatory comments towards China.

Morning report 13/10/2025 09:40

Macro Monday: Will another US-China trade stoush create opportunities, or a big problem?

The game of chicken is back on between the US and China, just in time to deliver some seasonal October volatility. Chinese President Xi Jinping has drawn a clear red line in a bid to stem new US export controls, threatening to reignite a tit-for-tat trade spiral with Donald Trump just weeks before a planned meeting between the leaders of the world’s biggest economies.

Weekend report 11/10/2025 13:42

Weekend Q&A: October’s volatility arrives on Friday night!

The ASX200 ended the week mildly softer, with tech and consumer discretionary stocks dragging the index down 0.3%. While the index treads water on the stock & sector level, the local market is getting more interesting with a strong performance by the miners almost offsetting broad-based weakness, with 5 of the main 11 sectors retreating between 1.4% and 2.4%. By Friday's close, the winners' enclosures contained an eclectic mix, with the material sector dominant in the positive contributors while the tech names were noticeable on the other side of the ledger:

Afternoon report 10/10/2025 17:47

What Mattered Today: ASX trickles lower with profit taking across the Golds

The ASX closed lower for the week, with today’s session capped by a risk-off tone as peace headlines out of Gaza knocked the shine off oil and gold, while iron ore heavyweights fell on renewed pricing tensions with China.

Morning report 10/10/2025 09:16

ETF Friday: Looking at 3 ETFs for sector reversion into 2026

The ASX 200 rose +0.3% on Thursday, though the real action played out beneath the market's surface, with the materials sector leading the charge, up +1.8% despite a rare pullback in gold stocks.

Afternoon report 09/10/2025 17:20

The Match Out: Copper & Rare Earth stocks push ASX within striking distance of all-time high

The ASX snapped a three-day losing streak today as heavyweight miners powered the market higher, pushing the index back within reach of record levels. A 14-month high in copper prices sparked strong gains across the materials sector, offsetting weakness in banks and tech.

Morning report 09/10/2025 09:22

What Matters Today: Will the RBNZ reinvigorate the “yield” trade?

The ASX200 slipped 0.1% on a quiet Wednesday, which saw some initial morning weakness before buyers returned, taking the index back towards unchanged. Outside of Wesfarmers (WES) -7.5 points and James Hardie (JHX) +5.7 points, none of the main board added or retracted more than 2 points from the index.

Afternoon report 08/10/2025 17:25

The Match Out: ASX eases as retailers and tech stocks drag; gold pauses after record high

The ASX eased modestly during the session as losses across retail and technology stocks outweighed strength in healthcare. Investors also took profits from gold miners after the precious metal briefly broke through the US$4000/oz barrier for the first time.

Morning report 08/10/2025 17:16

Portfolio Positioning: The US Government remains shut, but markets are calm

The ASX200 peeled away 0.3% on Tuesday, the first “real” day of trading this week, although losses weren’t overly broad-based, with 40% of the main board closing higher. While the retailers led the decline, it was noticeable to see some profit-taking wash through many pockets of the market as the US government lockdown drags on, even some gold names closed lower, despite the precious metal posting fresh highs.

Afternoon report 07/10/2025 16:37

The Match Out: ASX trickles lower in quiet session

A softer session for local equities, with volumes still light on the ground despite positive offshore leads, with gold’s relentless rise still clearly in focus with several brokers upgrading their forecasts. We think some consolidation is overdue for local stocks - a healthy reset as we move through October remains our expectation for now.