The Match Out: ASX up, RBA hold rates, downplays pre-Christmas cut

No change as expected today from the RBA with rates staying at 4.35%. They talked to the pace of disinflation slowing, while they maintained its previous guidance that it was not “ruling anything in or out” when it came to interest rates, the board said policy would need to be “sufficiently restrictive” until the board was confident inflation was “moving sustainably towards the target range”. This view is at odds with the market, Interest rate futures fully pricing in a cut before Christmas as the table below shows (29bps priced in), and an interest rate of ~3.5% by the end of FY25. The new press conference format provided a bit more meat on the bones of this view, and the Governor even had a crack at explaining volatility in equities over the past 48 hours, saying that one employment print in the US shouldn’t have us running for the hills…not bad advice from Governor Bullock!

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Weekend report 18/10/2025 09:49

Weekend Q&A: October’s volatility continues to play out across stocks, bonds, precious metals and even Bitcoin

The ASX200 ended the week up +0.4% but it looked so much stronger into lunch on Thursday, with the index pushing through 9100 for the first time in its history after soft local employment data lifted the market's hopes for a rate cut on Melbourne Cup Day. However, the broad market struggled on Thursday afternoon and especially on Friday, with the gold stocks the main reason we didn’t finish the week in negative territory as the precious metals continued to march ever higher. Monday is poised to deliver some major reversion with many stocks that struggled last week likely to enjoy a bid, and vice versa.

Afternoon report 17/10/2025 16:54

The Match Out: ASX slips into the weekend but gold keeps powering ahead

The ASX fell away into the weekend trading steadily lower throughout the day to close near its intra-day lows. Weakness in US futures and European futures and Asian indices didn't help sentiment where "risk off" was the theme of the day. Only the safe haven of gold seemed to hold any meaningful attraction to investors.

Morning report 17/10/2025 09:09

ETF Friday: Looking at 5 ETFs for a Santa Rally

The ASX 200 enjoyed a surprisingly strong Thursday, after a lacklustre start to the day. Aggressive buying pushed the market above 9100 for the first time before surrendering some of the day's gains through the afternoon to close up +0.9%.

Afternoon report 17/10/2025 16:48

The Match Out: ASX surges to new all-time high as weak jobs data fuels rate cut bets

Fireworks on the ASX today with choppy trade early before softer than expected employment data lit the fuse and fuelled expectations of an RBA rate cut next month, propelling the index to an intraday high of 9109 and finishing firmly above the previous high close of 9019 set back in August.

Morning report 16/10/2025 12:21

What Matters Today: The underperformers drive the ASX200 higher – is it reversion time?

The ASX 200 climbed back toward the 9,000 mark on Wednesday, with strength across the banks and miners lifting the market to a second straight day of gains, with gold notching yet another record high.

Afternoon report 15/10/2025 17:23

The Match Out: ASX nudges 9000

The ASX rallied to finish near the 9000 level and within reach of all-time highs - the majority of gains driven by the major banks and miners as upbeat sentiment from a strong start to the U.S. earnings season spilled over into the local market. The Big Four led the charge on renewed optimism around credit growth, while gold miners benefited from another surge in bullion prices.

Morning report 15/10/2025 09:44

Portfolio Positioning: 4 turnaround opportunities in a hot market

The ASX200 experienced a choppy Tuesday before ultimately closing up +0.2% courtesy of another stellar session by the resources, with the materials sector +2.3% and energy sector +1.4% dragging a begrudging market higher.

Afternoon report 14/10/2025 17:12

The Match Out: ASX recovers early weakness, Rare Earths stocks go ballistic

The ASX flipped between gains and losses through Tuesday and sat mildly higher near 8900 at the close. Risk appetite improved on signs Washington and Beijing will keep talking, a cooler Middle East backdrop and a flow on more positive updates from Aussie corporates, with several positive, growth orientated deals announced.

Morning report 14/10/2025 09:49

What Matters Today: The local high-valued/growth stocks are feeling vulnerable

The ASX 200 opened lower as expected on Monday, but failed to capitalise on a steady advance in U.S. futures, with nearly half of the session’s losses occurring in the afternoon even as the S&P pushed higher.

Afternoon report 13/10/2025 17:13

The Match Out: ASX hit on trade threats, ANZ resets strategy & rallies

The ASX tracked weakness in overseas markets, though we started the day better off, with US Futures recovering from the get-go, finding solace from DJT’s more conciliatory comments towards China.