The Match Out: ASX up, RBA hold rates, downplays pre-Christmas cut

No change as expected today from the RBA with rates staying at 4.35%. They talked to the pace of disinflation slowing, while they maintained its previous guidance that it was not “ruling anything in or out” when it came to interest rates, the board said policy would need to be “sufficiently restrictive” until the board was confident inflation was “moving sustainably towards the target range”. This view is at odds with the market, Interest rate futures fully pricing in a cut before Christmas as the table below shows (29bps priced in), and an interest rate of ~3.5% by the end of FY25. The new press conference format provided a bit more meat on the bones of this view, and the Governor even had a crack at explaining volatility in equities over the past 48 hours, saying that one employment print in the US shouldn’t have us running for the hills…not bad advice from Governor Bullock!

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Morning report 27/11/2025 10:02

What Matters Today: The music’s on full blast at the M&A party – who could be next?

The ASX200 advanced +0.8% on Wednesday, although another hot CPI reading took the edge off the strong performance. Well over 70% of the main board closed higher, with the miners again the shining light while the banks reversed early gains with two closing lower as the influential sector struggles in the face of no further rate cuts by the RBA.

Afternoon report 26/11/2025 16:37

The Match Out: Hotter inflation cools rate cut hopes, ASX up, but well-off highs, National Storage (NSR) receives bid

A hotter-than-expected inflation print has poured some cold water on what was shaping up as a very strong rebound for the ASX today. The market opened firmly, riding a strong lead from Wall Street and growing conviction around a December cut from the US Fed — but local data somewhat changed the tone.

Morning report 26/11/2025 09:53

Portfolio Positioning: Equities are getting a Thanksgiving lift

The ASX200 limped into the close on Tuesday finishing the day up +0.1%, after spending most of the day swinging between positive and negative territory. A sell-off in the banking sector all but wiped-out the markets initial gain with a ~7% plunge by Bendigo Bank leading the decline.

Alerts 26/11/2025 09:52

Trade Alerts – Emerging Companies Portfolio

We are making several changes to the Emerging Companies Portfolio

Afternoon report 25/11/2025 17:18

The Match Out: Strength in Materials & IT offset weak Banks – ASX mildly higher

The ASX ended the session broadly unchanged, with gains in miners, gold stocks and select tech names offset by heavy selling across the major banks. There was limited activity at the index level ahead of tomorrow’s first full monthly CPI release, expected to show a lift in inflation. Tech names benefited from renewed optimism around potential US rate cuts, though the weight of financials capped any meaningful momentum into the close.

Morning report 25/11/2025 13:08

What Matters Today: Could BHP cast its M&A net closer to home?

The ASX 200 opened strongly on Monday, buoyed by Friday’s dovish commentary from the Feds John Williams, and encouragingly it held those gains throughout the session. The index closed near its highs, up 1.3%, with 85% of the main board advancing. It was the local markets largest gain in 4-months with positive sentiment reinforced after Macquarie Asset Management offered to buy Qube Holdings (QUB) in a $11.6 billion deal, sending the logistics company up more than 19%.

Afternoon report 24/11/2025 16:48

The Match Out: ASX kicks the week off with a bounce, BHP walks from Anglo deal

The ASX found its footing today, snapping back from a six-month low as investors embraced a more dovish tone from the US Federal Reserve. After nearly $40bn was wiped off the local market late last week, today’s relief rally felt well-timed and broad-based. Rate-sensitives led the bounce, but we also saw solid rotation across industrials, healthcare and selected pockets of materials.

Morning report 24/11/2025 09:45

Macro Monday: Hopes of a December Fed cut stem the blood on Wall Street

Division within the Fed has increased in recent weeks, as policymakers deliver increasingly divergent positions ahead of the central bank’s December meeting — all while Chair Jerome Powell remains conspicuously silent. The situation escalated on Friday when New York Fed President John Williams — often viewed as a bellwether for Powell’s thinking — signalled support for a rate cut, even as several other officials argued against easing policy.

Weekend report 22/11/2025 09:16

Weekend Q&A: Volatility soars on uncertainty around valuations in the “AI Trade”

The ASX 200 ended the week down another -2.5% with only the defensive natured consumer staples sector managing to eke out a small gain. It was the local market's worst week since “Liberation Day” with the index closing at its lowest level since June, on a combination of worries around stretched valuations and the direction of interest rates. On Friday, the local bourse closed 7.7% below its all-time high posted in October when the prospect of lower rates was managing to offset lingering fears around frothy valuations.

Afternoon report 21/11/2025 16:44

The Match Out: ASX hit again, WiseTech (WTC) bucks the trend after AGM

The ASX limped into the weekend, chalking up its fourth straight weekly loss. That’s a tough run by any measure, putting November’s losses at ~5% so far — the worst monthly showing since September 2022. Ongoing uncertainty around US interest rates after a slightly stronger-than-expected US labour report showed 119k jobs added vs. 50k expected, while risk off flows have knocked the likes of Bitcoin, now trading $US86k down from $US125k high.