The Match Out: ASX falls on hotter inflation

A choppy session with the ASX ultimately giving back ~50% of yesterday’s advance in part due to a hotter than expected monthly inflation print for May. Expectations were for +3.8% YoY vs 4.0% realised, which saw bond yields meaningfully higher (bonds sold) as the market priced in a greater chance of a rate hike in August (now 30%) & September (now 60%). Aussie 3-year yields were up 17.5bps settling at 4.10% which underpinned a 0.6% rise in the AUD to 66.86c, along with a quick 45pt sell-off for equities

scroll

OPINION
ACTION

Afternoon report 26/06/2024 17:28

The Match Out: ASX falls on hotter inflation

AUDS

MM still believes the next move for rates is down, but not this year!

Add To Hit List

Subscribe to Ausbiz to watch the Market Matters team in action

Latest Reports

Afternoon report 30/07/2025 17:23

The Match Out: Soft inflation print lights the ASX up on rate cut optimism

A strong session for the ASX today back testing all-time highs with softer than tipped inflation data at 11.30am the catalyst. The RBA having been waiting for this quarterly print on price pressures, and now the door is fully ajar for a rate cut on the 12 August.

Morning report 30/07/2025 09:30

Portfolio Positioning: Today’s CPI is likely to determine if we get an interest rate cut in August

The ASX200 rallied bravely throughout Tuesday to close slightly higher after being down 0.6% earlier in the day. In an overall quiet session, none of the major 11 sectors moved by more than 0.7% but if you look deeper under the hood, it was a tough day for uranium stocks, even though ironically the energy sector was the best on the ground, closing up +0.65%.

Afternoon report 29/07/2025 17:51

The Match Out: Strong recovery from early weakness ahead of inflation data tomorrow

The ASX is looking interesting here for the chartists, with the market having broken out mid-month before coming back to consolidate above the ~8600 breakout level. Today was important, with a retest and ultimate rally, and while the main board only put on +6pts in aggregate, it was +60pts from the morning low – a bullish sign. The move will be tested tomorrow with the important inflation data out at 11.30am, a more benign print (sub 2.1%) should see the market break higher, and vice versa on a hotter read. A pivotal penultimate day of the month! • The ASX200 +6pts/+0.08% closing at 8704

Morning report 29/07/2025 09:27

What Matters Today: Should we buy the pullback in lithium stocks, or abandon ship?

The ASX200 started the week on a firm footing, closing up +0.4%, back within a few points of the psychological 8700 area. The catalyst for the solid day was news that the EU and the US had reached a trade agreement, and President Trump was looking to extend his tariff truce with China - the US S&P 500 futures buoyed sentiment, opening ~0.5% higher on the tariff news.

Afternoon report 28/07/2025 17:24

The Match Out: ASX moves up on weekend trade deals, Boss Energy (BOE) hit as management flags mine issues

The ASX closed higher on Monday as global markets rallied on the back of a new US-EU trade deal, a lower tariff of 15% vs 30% widely expected, as well as signs the US-China tariff truce may be extended for an additional 90 days.

Morning report 28/07/2025 09:58

Macro Monday: A cautious air of “Risk-off” is creeping into markets

Meme stock mania has been spreading across a growing number of speculative stocks, underscoring retail traders' appetite for more risky bets even with the market at all-time highs.

Weekend report 26/07/2025 13:47

CORRECTWeekend Q&A: The ASX200 is feeling “soft” as we approach August & September

The ASX200 slipped 1% last week, eroding 40% of July's gains as the RBA took the shine off the local market even as global indices pushed to fresh highs, i.e. the US S&P 500 advanced +1.5% last week. The S&P 500 notched its 5th straight record weekly closing high, courtesy of more than 80% of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have reported to date have beaten Wall Street’s expectations. In Australia, it's been a more mixed and polarised affair on the reporting front, but with the “Big Four Banks” retreating on average close to 4% the ASX was always going to struggle to match its overseas peers.

Afternoon report 25/07/2025 17:05

The Match Out: Stocks end the week lower; Resources join Banks in the sell-off

The ASX put in a weaker session seeing sustained selling through the day, as softer iron ore prices weighed on the materials space. With heavyweight resources and the big banks down, the index was fighting a losing battle from start to finish, though we still managed to close higher for the week.

Alerts 25/07/2025 09:54

Trade Alert – Growth & Emerging Companies Portfolio

MM is adding to an existing position

Morning report 25/07/2025 09:47

ETF Friday: Is it too late to buy three “off the beaten track” Top Performing ETFs?

The ASX 200 keeps teasing us with a significant breakout on the upside before gains are tempered by macro &/or geopolitical news. On Thursday, it was the RBA with Michele Bullock delivering a less dovish speech than hoped by many, warning that underlying inflation may not fall as quickly as anticipated, signalling that an interest rate cut next month is not guaranteed - futures markets are still pricing it as a certainty, with a 40% chance of a third before Christmas.