Portfolio Positioning: Fed rate cut bets wane, even after a soft CPI

The ASX200 surged +0.7% on Tuesday following broad-based gains, which saw 70% of the mainboard close higher. The index posted a fresh record closing high for the second time in a fortnight, ignoring plenty of negative news along the way. Ironically, the only sector which slipped on the day was the materials even after China reported better-than-expected quarterly economic growth, although we wouldn’t be surprised to see this translate to some buying in the miners into August.

scroll

OPINION
ACTION

Latest Reports

Alerts 30/10/2025 10:05

Trade Alert – Active Growth Portfolio

We are selling a property holding

Morning report 30/10/2025 09:58

What Matters Today: Is it time to “tweak” portfolios as hopes of RBA rate cuts fade

The ASX200 finished 1% lower on Wednesday after a hot CPI print dashed hopes of an interest rate cut into Christmas - by the end of the day, futures markets were pricing in a 20% chance of some Christmas joy for mortgage holders and arguably more telling, only one cut at most by next Christmas! Michele Bullock has been warning markets to be conservative with their dovish forecasts, and it's her crystal ball that’s now looking the clearest.

Afternoon report 29/10/2025 17:30

The Match Out: ASX falls on hotter inflation data, Uranium stocks surge

Australian equities sold off sharply after a red-hot Q3 inflation print forced investors to abandon any near-term easing hopes. Core CPI, the RBA’s preferred gauge, jumped 1.0% QoQ (vs 0.8% expected & 0.6% RBA forecast).

Morning report 29/10/2025 09:46

Portfolio Positioning: The action continues to unfold on the stock and sector level

The ASX200 struggled on Tuesday under the weight of four major stocks tumbling by more than 10%, dragging the index lower from both a points and sentiment perspective. A strong banking sector couldn't dig the bourse out of trouble, as health care and IT stocks were dragged underwater by sector giants CSL and WiseTech, each sinking more than 15%.

Afternoon report 28/10/2025 17:31

The Match Out: Strength in banks not enough to drive ASX higher as CSL & WTC get whacked

The ASX slipped as sharp losses in tech and healthcare weighed heavily - the market was fighting an uphill battle after CSL and Wisetech both had –15% days, accounting for –61pts of index weakness between them.

Alerts 28/10/2025 09:52

Trade Alert – Active Growth Portfolio

We are buying a Gold stock this morning

Morning report 28/10/2025 11:36

What Matters Today: Is the lithium sector’s recovery based on value, or short-covering

The ASX 200 advanced +0.4% on the last Monday of October, with winners and losers fairly evenly matched, but the influential banks and heavyweight resource stocks dragged the broader index higher. The combination of Friday's strong session on Wall Street following the soft CPI and optimism over a US-China trade deal lifted the local market and US futures, which were up +0.7% when the domestic day session ended.

Afternoon report 27/10/2025 17:17

The Match Out: ASX follows U.S higher on Fed rate cut optimism

The ASX200 climbed today, lifted by broad-based gains as global sentiment improved on renewed optimism around a potential US–China trade deal and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this week.

Alerts 27/10/2025 10:28

Trade Alerts – Active Growth, Income & Emerging Companies

We are making several changes across three portfolios today

Morning report 27/10/2025 09:52

Macro Monday: The Feds are set to get busy, will rate cuts push stocks ever higher?

Many economists have long warned that Trump’s tariffs would ignite a sharp rise in inflation, but that threat continues to be a dog that won’t bark. On Friday, another nail was driven into the hawks’ coffin as US inflation data came in softer than expected. Wall Street surged to new record highs, with the cooler print reinforcing market expectations that the Fed will deliver four to five rate cuts over the next year, starting with a 0.25% move this week.