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The ASX drifted lower again today, extending its losing streak to eight sessions as elevated oil prices and rising bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment. Brent crude pushed toward multi-year highs, keeping inflation concerns alive and lifting the Australian 10-year yield above 5% after a steady climb over the past two weeks.
The ASX200 posted its 7th consecutive day of losses on Wednesday, falling another 0.3% despite a softer-than-feared inflation print. The CPI came in at 4.6% in the year to March, lower than expected but spiking sharply from February, hitting levels not seen since 2023. Short-dated local bonds rallied on the release (yields lower), but the move did little to shift the broader hawkish outlook for rates into 2026. Credit markets continue to price in a ~70% probability of a third RBA hike next week.
The ASX extended its losing streak today as investors digested Australia’s March inflation print, which came in slightly below expectations but still high enough to keep the prospect of another RBA rate hike firmly on the table next week. Bond yields eased following the data, though sentiment remained fragile with markets now pricing roughly a ~75% chance of a move up in May.
The ASX 200 fell a further 0.6% on Tuesday, marking its longest losing streak in four years. It was another ugly day for Australia’s share market, notching its sixth-straight session of losses as 9 out of the 11 main sectors retreated. On the day, it was the miners that did the most damage, contributing over 35% of the day’s decline as a bounce in the $US dollar dragged down commodities, except the oil price, which continues to push higher, notching its seventh daily advance, almost a perfect mirror image of the ASX.
The ASX had another tough session today with selling fairly broad-based, leaving the market testing its 200-day moving average as investors remain cautious around the macro backdrop.
The heavyweight US indices powered to fresh all-time highs on Friday night. However, the weekend delivered another twist to the Iran saga with US President Trump abruptly cancelling the planned envoy trip to Pakistan for peace talks, citing unnecessary costs and a disappointing offer from Tehran.
The ASX200 ended the penultimate week of April, surrendering -1.8% of the month’s gain, with a string of profit downgrades combining with the country’s high vulnerability to the global fuel crisis caused by the Iran war – the oil price continues to grind higher with no clear resolution in sight for the conflict. A wave of profit downgrades swept the ASX, led this week by Cochlear’s earnings shock, which sent its shares plunging 40%. Other companies warning that surging energy costs will weigh on earnings included Qantas, Worley, a2 Milk, Orora, Cleanaway and Qube. The ASX is also struggling because its two heavyweight sectors have come off the boil, the banks and resources.
A choppy session that mirrored yesterday’s move to end the week as higher oil prices kept a lid on the local market for most of the day until a decent ~50pt rally from the lows saw the index finish almost flat into the close. The selling in financials eased, providing some stability, while materials weighed as gold stocks took a hit.
The ASX remained under pressure today, as the index notched its third consecutive day of losses, weighed down by renewed fears around the Iran conflict after reports of Iranian gunboats firing on commercial vessels and seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
