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As we approach Q4 the question being asked by many is can the AX200 again rise from the ashes, yesterday it was battered for the 2nd successive day as September looks set to live up to its bearish reputation, the index is sitting down 4.5% with just today’s session remaining. Stocks have been caught with a classic “1-2 combination” as the deteriorating macro picture threatens to derail the liquidity driven bull market:
Another weak session today saw the ASX end down more than 1% – the same culprits dragging the ASX lower, IT & Healthcare however Energy was also on the wrong side of the ledger today after a very strong run of late. As we discussed this morning, bond yields trading at 3 month highs is starting to unnerve investors while J Powell’s commentary around higher inflation further fueled that view.
We are tweaking the Flagship Growth & Income Portfolios in this Alert.
MM talked about the ASX200 rotating around the 7400 area in Tuesdays “What Matters Today” Report only for it close under 7300 just 7-hours later as broad based selling rolled through the index – in hindsight the local index again called the overnight drop in US stocks perfectly . The losses were focused in the interest rate sensitive growth stocks such as Healthcare -3.6% and Tech -2.9%, importantly if MM is correct and bond yields are going to maintain their upward momentum into 2022 the rotation out of growth into value names should be ongoing – our portfolios which…
Well, it seems there’s very little middle ground in the market at the moment with another ~100pt selloff coming on the back a few strong sessions – the 3 steps forward 2 back mentality we’ve been writing about in recent notes seems on point. Today it was weakness in the high value names, the growth areas of IT & Healthcare which really weighed the broader index which is a function of rising bond yields globally.
The ASX200 enjoyed a solid start to the week although it did experience some pretty aggressive selling into the close which aligns with our view that the strong post COVID rally is maturing i.e. some sellers are appearing into strength. While the banks led the charge on Monday they were very well supported by the “re-opening trade” as Gladys looks to put COVID well and truly into the rear view mirror – as she said “living with COVID won’t be easy but its manageable”. At this stage we continue to believe the…
A bullish session for the ASX to kick off the last week of the month & quarter with the market enjoying the more concrete rhetoric around re-opening as laid out by Glady’s today. Unsurprisingly, travel stocks were strong however we also saw good gains from the Energy & Financial sectors at the expense of the Covid winners in IT & Healthcare. While the ASX200 finished +0.57% higher, the high was seen at midday and we tracked lower into the close – a big MOC order knocked the market ~20pts lower in the match.
MM is buying PDN into weakness
The ASX200 along with most global indices has taken a dive this month, its amazing how fundamentals have a habit of delivering events which coincide with the dominant seasonal trends i.e. September is regarded by many as the worst month to invest in equities. The fascinating impact of human psychology as it swings between “Fear & Greed” is evident when a market falls as expected only for investors to then find themselves questioning their fortitude to stand up and buy when things feel bad – an action which is usually but not always the correct course…
Trading on the ASX was dominated last week by China Evergrande as the massive property developer watched its stock continue to crash as doubts whether it could meet looming interest payments intensified by the day – the company only owes a mere $US305bn, or more than twice the market cap of BHP Group (BHP)
