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The ASX200 enjoyed an explosive start to the week with over 80% of the main board advancing led by the banks, energy and tech stocks, if we take the gold sector out of the mix it was almost a clean sweep for the bulls. There are only 3 trading days left of this financial year hence the easiest call for the next few sessions is we should expect plenty of volatility under the hood of the market, in both directions. Second-guessing which stocks will surge or plunge is akin to a game of two-up hence we would rather step back and see if anything becomes too cheap or expensive and then we can act accordingly i.e. don’t be surprised if you receive another trading alert over the coming week.
A solid start to the week with the ASX putting on nearly 2% led by the financial sector, although it was green right across the screen with all sectors finishing up on the day. Nice to see buying early that was supported throughout the day with the market closing near session highs – some confidence returning, at least in the short term!
MM is selling TWE, buying OZL & adding to IGO
Equities are struggling as free money is withdrawn from the financial system and many stocks appear to be going on sale, recession led market corrections have only occurred roughly every 6-years since WW2 and while a little more downside wouldn’t surprise MM considering how much economic stimulus supported stocks through the GFC and COVID these should be exciting times for the informed investors not a time to panic – remember US stocks have already endured over 75% of their average recession led correction.
Last week saw the ASX200 stabilise and following a strong session on Friday even manage to close up +1.6% over the 5-days, an impressive effort considering the Resources Sector tumbled over -4.5% e.g. over the week we saw OZ Minerals (OZL) -5%, BHP Group (BHP) -5.9% and Santos (STO) -7.3%. MM have been talking about the potential for tech and growth stocks to bounce strongly for a while and Friday finally saw such an aggressive “risk on” move unfold as bond yields edge lower on recession fears although at MM we feel the tail end of tax loss selling probably helped release the cork from this particular bottle. Wherever we looked underperforming high beta stocks rallied strongly:
It was certainly a ‘risk on’ session today with the Small Ordinaries (+3.20%) creaming the large caps (+0.77%) while drilling down into the relative sector performances also highlighted that skew, Technology the standout while other interest rate-sensitive sectors like real-estate did well. A good way to end a reasonable week for the market, while at Market Matters we also went live with a new version of our website, which brings in market data, advanced charting, company financials and broker forecasts, into what we think is a very user-friendly platform.
The ASX200 edged higher on Thursday as the broad market managed to successfully offset pockets of aggressive selling in the Resources Sector courtesy of some very tough commentary from Fed Chair Powell around the potential for a recession in the year ahead. The commodities markets have certainly been paying attention with both crude oil and copper plumbing multi-week lows over recent days:
A fairly muted session today on the ASX with the defensive sectors doing well while those exposed to economic weakness struggled. Energy is at the pointy end of that, a crowded trade that is unwinding however if we see another ~10% downside we’ll likely step back into the sector.
The ASX200 slipped back into its recent bad habits yesterday with investors prepared to chase a few bargains into weakness but unfortunately, there remains a clear absence of buyers into any meaningful degree of strength – it appears we need some improvement on the macro level before some real confidence returns to stocks but this can often occur when least expected. However, through Wednesday’s session, it was a sharp decline by the S&P500 futures that changed the initial positive sentiment for the local market as recession fears intensified dragging down influential commodities like crude oil and copper, both were down well over…
An average day for the ASX with the market giving up an early advance after a solid session in the US overnight, US Futures turning lower during our time zone and weakness throughout Asia didn’t help.
