Archives: Reports
The ASX200 managed to rally +0.25% after the RBA raised interest rates 0.5%, right in line with expectations, the cash rate sits at 1.35% with pundits now attempting to 2nd guess what comes next. We are in the midst of the most aggressive tightening cycle in almost 30 years after two consecutive 0.5% hikes and many people are now expecting another to follow in August as local inflation is tipped to edge towards 7% by Christmas:
The RBA raised rates today by 0.50% as expected, the market rallied, the AUD edged marginally lower and the reaction was generally as we thought it would be, the market appreciating a level of certainty and a central bank stepping up and acting as they should be given the inflationary pressures. Not a lot else happening in the market today, so a short note as a consequence.
The ASX200 started its first full week of July on the front foot rallying +1.1% on broad-based buying which saw over 80% of the main board close up on the day. All sectors rallied with only the industrials and utilities advancing less than 0.5%, the underlying strength flowed through from the bond market which has started to question how fast central banks will hike rates as recession fears increase, global economic data is already starting to deteriorate threatening a recession sooner rather than later. On balance, MM believes we will see rate cuts in late 2023 but in today’s uncertain…
A bullish but quiet session to kick off the week with the market opening sharply higher but losing some direction as the day progressed, no trade in the US tonight (closed for 4th July) the reason however locally, we’re now approaching full year reporting so companies are in blackout and therefore news is thin on the ground.
Last week’s title on Monday was “Here comes the bounce”, things were looking on track come mid-week with the ASX200 up over 200-points but increasing recession fears were enough to reverse all of the gains plus a little more leaving the index down -0.7% come Friday’s close. Market volatility remains extremely high across a number of markets, not just financials, although interesting the stocks and sectors aren’t necessarily reacting as would often be expected:
The ASX200 got hit around -0.4% in the match on Friday taking the index down 0.6% for a week which promised so much early on, the market was over 200-points higher on Tuesday afternoon! Weakness through the local market was most prevalent in sectors traditionally sensitive to an economic downturn courtesy off escalating recession fears e.g. Real Estate & Retail, while IT stocks failed to find encouragement from a pullback in bond yields. Through the week much of the day to day volatility was delivered by the miners with heavyweight BHP Group (BHP) trading in a greater than 7% range. Downgrades have been flowing through the Resources Sector with some prominent names getting whacked – MM took advantage of the volatility to buy back into OZ Minerals (OZL) as it hit fresh 18-month lows.
The market opened well this morning, up more than ~50pts at our high, however once again US Futures traded lower throughout our time zone and Aussie stocks followed suit, closing only marginally higher. It was the resources weighing significantly with most sectors finishing in the green despite the weaker index. Some of the more unloved parts of the market over the last quarter caught a bid today with Real Estate popping 1.45% just one example.
The ASX200 bode farewell to the financial year in the same bearish manner that’s dominated the last 2-months taking its decline for the tax rule-off period to -10.2%. Losses on the disappointing Thursday compounded through the day with the index closing down 2%, only 10% of the main board managed to close in positive territory but the fall wasn’t caused by tax-loss selling as many might discuss this morning, it was all about aggressive falls in global risk assets during our time zone which flowed into the ASX:
A fitting way to end a tough year for markets with the ASX losing ~2% to close back below 6600, and on the low of the day. For FY22, the ASX 200 is down 10.19% with a 38% fall by the IT sector the starkest of stats, while Consumer Discretionary (-23%) and Real-Estate (-16%) also fell sharply i.e. the sectors most influenced by interest rates. On the flip side, a lot of joy came from Energy (+29%) and Utilities (+24%), while the Industrials (+0.76%), Staples (-2%), Materials (-9%) & Telcos (-9%) all outperformed the broader market to varying degrees. As we suggested…
The ASX200 struggled throughout yesterday finally closing down -0.9% although it did recover a third of the morning’s losses through a relatively unconvincing afternoon bounce. Considering over 80% of the market fell it wasn’t a bad result aided by a relatively steady Banking Sector. Under the hood, it was another tough session for tech, real estate and healthcare stocks, three sectors that keep looking for a low with very little success. Overall yesterday was a quiet day bar the sharp drop on the opening, EOFY portfolio tweaks feel like they’ve already been actioned i.e. investors have become much smarter over recent years with regards to tax-loss selling now commencing much earlier.
