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US stocks experienced a volatile but ultimately positive session overnight following the support of First Republic Bank which saw the S&P00 advance +1.8% and the NASDAQ again outperform +2.7% even as Treasuries fell and rates rose after the ECB hiked interest rates. The Tech stocks are focused on the future path for interest rates as opposed to the current turmoil in the Banking Sector – on the sector level Tech rallied +2.8% while the Financials bounced +2%.
A tough day at the office with the ASX down ~1.5%, the only silver lining was the index finished more than +50pts up from the session low hit at 11 am following news that Credit Suisse had tapped the Swiss National Bank for up US$54b, with the hope of containing the issues. While positive, there’s still a lot to play out here and the volatility we’re seeing in bond markets is clearly a concern.
We are buying MIN in the flagship Growth Portfolio
US stocks experienced another tough session overnight as Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) plunged ever lower, the European investment bank closed down a scary -24% with the Swiss Government now looking at options to stabilise the bank – ironically economists were focusing on consumers and mortgage holders being pressured by rate hikes over the last 12 months but it has been the banks that appear to have suffered the most since central banks relentlessly marched down their hawkish path.
The local market saw a bit of a relief rally today as concerns over the collapse of SVIB eased. Tech was the main winner of the bunch, but a strong day from market heavyweights financials and materials supported the index. Energy closed marginally lower as oil hit a 3-month low overnight before rebounding somewhat in Asian trade today.
This time last week the market was abuzz with the previous day’s 10th consecutive interest rate hike by the RBA which in the process took the Australian Official Cash Rate to 3.6%. This morning that’s a distant memory as analysts apply stress tests to the embattled US & Global Banking Sector, the former has already fallen -39% from its January 2022 high – this week we have already seen well know Zurich based merchant bank Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) plumb a fresh all-time low showing it’s not just the vulnerable US regionals that are catching sellers attention.
Risk assets continued their sell off today with broad-based weakness seen across the ASX. The index fell below the psychological 7000 level for the first time since January 4, though it showed some fight to close marginally above that level in the end. Energy felt the brunt of the pain today as the global growth concerns were caught up in the bank contagion fears.
We are adding to our banking exposure into weakness.
Through 2023 MM has been pointing out how equities were ignoring rising bond yields i.e. the previous 4 times we saw local 3-year yields above 3.5% the ASX200 was under 7000. However, ironically this month has seen the local index plunge towards 7000 as yields finally turn lower following the collapse of SVB – a great example of what drives markets transitioning over time.
