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The ASX200 surged higher on the 1stday of December as it celebrated Jerome Powell’s first meaningfully dovish comments of 2022, the result on the stock level was very much as expected with interest rate sensitive names finally hogging the limelight e.g. four stocks held at MM soared higher, Evolution Mining (EVN) +6.3%, Xero (XRO) +6.2%, James Hardie (JHX) +5.4% and Sandfire (SFR) +5.2%. We have been positioned for such a move for over a month so let’s hope it’s not a “one and done” knee-jerk rally following the Fed Chairs speech.
• “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting” – Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed Reserve.
The gains were broad-based across the market with over 75% of the main board closing in positive territory, only the Energy & Healthcare Sectors closed down on the day which saw the ASX200 trade within 3.6% of its all-time high posted in August of 2021 – what bear market! The defensives are not surprisingly the main area dragging the chain which could provide MM with some excellent switching opportunities when we feel its time to migrate back down the risk curve:
US stocks rallied late in their session to close ~3% higher, while the Nasdaq put on ~4.5% as technology stocks enjoyed the rhetoric from the Federal Reserve around interest rates.
MM is buying EVN
We’ve already seen some massive squeezes through July/August this year with Zip (Z1P) coming to mind but with the ASX already knocking on the door of its all-time high, we question what stocks/sectors investors will remain comfortable chasing higher with 7600 less than 4% away from where we are set to open this morning – the bears clearly are not enjoying the last quarter of 2022.
A good day for the ASX to end what has been another stellar monthly performance, the ASX 200 advancing +6.75% (incl dividends) in November led by a ~20% advance by Utilities but more importantly, a 16.3% rally in Materials. All sectors were higher in the month with the bears clearly licking their wounds – and there are plenty of them around!
Today it was more benign inflation that got the buyers going again following a soft first hour or so of trade, the ASX 200 ultimately rallying +60pts from the morning lows with Energy, Materials & Property the standouts.
The S&P/ASX 200 added +30 points /
The news would imply otherwise but reopening bets have propelled Chinese equities towards their best month in years i.e. the markets are saying when not if, will Beijing shift away from its economically damaging Covid-zero policy. The last 2-years have seen Chinese indices plunge over 40% under the weight of both a domestic property crisis and ongoing Covid restrictions. However, with 24 hours remaining Chinese stocks in Hong Kong are set for their best month since 2003 while the Yuan is set for its largest monthly advance in 4 years.
The market was weaker this morning as concern bubbled over from Chinese protests on the weekend centred on their futile Covid-zero policy, however that pessimism turned to optimism on leaks that the policy will be scrapped, while the Government also relaxed some regulations around property developers – a conciliatory / pro-growth move. Asian stocks rallied, Hong Kong shares +4.5% around our close and that underpinned a ~50pt turnaround for the local market.
The Covid pandemic had a very mixed impact on Australian Healthcare stocks with investors appearing to get far too optimistic towards the beneficiaries as we saw with Healius (HLS) yesterday whose Covid testing revenue has already plunged 85% taking the stock down 45% in less than 12-months.
Local shares were soft to start the week as unrest in China hit sentiment for growth assets. Commodity-linked sectors were the hardest hit given the concerns around the world’s biggest economy, though energy was particularly weak on the back of ongoing discussions around capping Russian oil prices.
Last week was steady as she goes with US markets enjoying a shortened week courtesy of the Thanksgiving Holiday, the main point of interest to MM was the softening of rhetoric from the Fed in their latest minutes:
Fed officials expect to switch to smaller interest rate hikes “soon” – perhaps only a 0.5% move in January after the previous four consecutive 0.75% hikes.
Officials are becoming concerned about the impact on the economy after 2-year bond yields have rallied from basically zero to close to 5% in around 18 months.
As most subscribers know rising bond yields have weighed very heavily on the growth of stocks, with tech front and centre, the problem is term deposits are now yielding more than the S&P500 hence investors need to be confident capital gains are likely moving forward, otherwise, why would they take on the added risk. Over the last 6 months, every time the market became vaguely optimistic around peak inflation/interest rates Fed officials took an almost sledgehammer approach to reiterate their hawkish stance towards reigning in inflation, but in the last week we’ve finally seen some real glimmers of hope that they will ease off sooner rather than later.
