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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) shocked financial markets at 2 pm AEST when they adjusted their yield curve control program, in simple English they will allow Japan’s 10-year bond yields to rise to ~0.5% from the previous upper limit of 0.25% – at MM we all wish we could borrow money for 10-years at 0.5%, that would make a lovely present from Santa. However, at the same time, the central bank kept its short-term interest rates at minus -0.1%, significantly below the likes of Australia, Europe and the US.
Certainly, a risk-off day for stocks right across the region following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) move to tweak their yield curve control program where-by they’ll allow the 10-year bond yield to rise to 0.5%, up from the previous upper limit of 0.25% – hardly a blip compared to what other bond markets have experienced but big in the context of how the BoJ have previously operated.
The ASX200 put in a valiant effort yesterday considering Friday’s weakness on Wall Street, for much of the session it actually felt like we were witnessing the dawn of another “Christmas Rally” before the index ultimately closed down just -0.2% with the Real Estate Sector falling -1.1% the weakest link. Conversely, the Energy Sector again rallied solidly led by the coal names with Whitehaven (WHC) now only ~4% away from making fresh all-time highs.
A distinct holiday feel about today’s trade and while the index drifted lower, it still felt like there was a lack of sellers about, and as soon as we get a semblance of positivity from overseas markets, it’s that lack of selling that is key to any Christmas rally that might unfold.
As most readers would know last week saw central banks continue to hike interest rates with total disregard for Christmas cheer, the hikes and net hawkish rhetoric weighed on equities making a “Christmas Rally” start to feel like the proverbial pipe dream – any other time of the year and we would say no way but history tells us to never discount a run by stocks into Christmas and the year-end. Some fascinating moves unfolded on the macro level last week with very mixed messages for investors:
The ASX200 struggled under the weight of the central bank’s rate hikes and net hawkish rhetoric last week although bonds didn’t pay any attention which actually suggests to us it was more a case of stocks had run too hard, too fast from their October lows e.g. In only 2 months the ASX200 surged +15%. Under the hood of the market, it was a mixed bag with strong energy and real estate stocks being more than offset by selling in the miners and healthcare names.
Most of us already know the respective moves by the major central banks over the week but the standout 3 points were as follows:
It wasn’t a bad effort really from the ASX today ending the session down 56pts following a sharp sell-off in the US overnight, the Energy & Material stocks providing the backbone as Iron Ore hit a new 6-month high at $US120/tonne.
The ASX200 struggled again yesterday taking the market into negative territory for the week as weakness crept into the previously strong Resources Sector. The market has felt heavy over the last few weeks but at this stage, we’re still only -2.3% below the market’s recent high, very surmountable if we can regain our mojo after recent moves by central banks…
A tough day for local stocks with the ASX200 closing down -0.64% on broad-based selling which saw over 70% of the market close down on the day. Overnight the Fed prepared investors for interest rates above 5% next year but equities are still unsure whether to embrace the comments as the worst is approaching fast or that this is higher than we expected and a recession is looming hence equities could fall further i.e. as we said this morning the next 48-hours are likely to dictate if we enjoy another seasonal Christmas rally.
We are making changes across two key portfolios:
