Archives: Reports
The ASX200 continues to face headwinds around the 7300 area but when we take into account what was thrown at the index yesterday the minor -0.4% pullback felt like a solid performance, the broad market actually rallied with nearly 60% of the main board finishing up on the day but when heavyweight BHP Group (BHP) tumbles -3.4% the result is almost inevitable – more on this and related names later.
A softer session for the market, but again there was a lot happening under the hood as you’d expect with reporting season still in full swing – although tapering off from here. 60% of the ASX actually rallied today although when the Materials are down ~1.5% it’s always going to be tough going at the index level.
We are buying AGL Energy (AGL) in the Income Portfolio
The ASX200 put in a brave performance yesterday closing down just -0.3% in the process shrugging off a -2% drop by the US S&P500 plus Commonwealth Bank (CBA) trading ex-dividend $2.10 fully franked. The catalyst for the market’s impressive intra-day recovery was the wage data released at 11.30 am which showed wages are rising far less than expected and importantly well below the current rate of inflation i.e. everyone’s already getting worse off without the help of the RBA!
An interesting session today with the market getting knocked ~60pts early on following a ~700pt fall by the Dow Jones in the US, however wage data that was weaker than expected saw the AUD fall, bond yields fall and equities rally strongly from the morning lows to finish only a lower, particularly when we strip out the impact of dividends with CBA trading Ex-Div for $2.10 + franking today.
A peak Cash Rate close to 4% had been MM’s target for 2023 but after reading the minutes from this month’s RBA Meeting it now feels highly likely that Philip Lowe et al will push the local economy over the proverbial cliff in an attempt to crush inflation – shame it wasn’t more forward-thinking post-COVID as it ignored clear signs that inflation was on the loose i.e. one shop at Woolies would have told the tale!
A choppy session at the index level, although ultimately we ended pretty close to where we started down by ~15pts as a number of influential companies pared back losses despite a mixed bag of results. Materials were the winner thanks largely to ongoing strength in Copper & Iron Ore prices while some money came out of the Communications sector led by Telstra (TLS) which fell ~1.2%
The ASX200 trod water on Monday with the index rotating in a very tight 26-point range however beneath the hood it was a very different story with reporting season providing its usual volatility e.g. Inghams (ING) +11.%, NIB Holdings (NHF) -11.6%, and BlueScope (BSL) -10%. As we approach the halfway mark in this reporting calendar winners are ahead of losers by a nose but with Commonwealth Bank (CBA) falling over 8% last week after disappointing the market its no surprise that the index has struggled of late – with BHP Group (BHP) facing the music today the story looks poised for its next chapter.
A reasonable session at the index level today with some support emerging for the banks into weakness while BHP rose ahead of their results due out tomorrow. Overall, more misses than beats today as many of the reporting companies fell sharply, although overall, with 40% of companies having now reported, we still observe that beats are outnumbering misses (just).
If we are correct this merry-go-round of market opinion will dominate 2023 as economists and investors alike attempt to 2nd guess the Fed, RBA, BOE & Co. The RBA Chair Philip Lowe has become increasingly hawkish as the year evolves with the senate hearing not dampening his aggressive stance towards inflation. In our opinion it’s simply a year to watch for elastic bands stretching too far and fading the respective moves whether it be too hawkish, dovish focused on a recession, a recovery, or rate cuts in 2024 – they are all probably going come into play this year in one form or another.
