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February saw short-dated bond yields test multi-month/year highs but their longer dated peers have been fairly subdued remaining well below levels reached in 2022. We have a bearish bias towards these longer dated yields due to our view that the domestic economy is weaker than the RBA believe – yesterdays data implies we may be proved correct sooner rather than later.
It was a soggy start to the session today, but buyers came to life mid-morning when some local data prints landed. Inflation (CPI) for January came in below expectations at 7.4%, below the 8% expected by the market while GDP Growth for the 4th quarter was 0.5% vs 0.7% expected. The data took some heat out of bond yields and helped support shares today, while China’s Caixin PMI was also above expectations which supported resource names into the afternoon.
January saw investors become overly optimistic that central bank pivots were close at hand and rate cuts would add some cheer for mortgage holders into Christmas, the net result was the ASX200 roared +9.6% in less than 6 weeks i.e. more than the market average annual gain over the last 20-years. However, as we all know following some surprisingly strong economic data the RBA & Fed have stamped aggressively on any dovish outlook and suddenly markets are looking for official interest rates to peak at 4.4% in Australia and 5.4% in the US.
The market ended a tough month on the front foot with the material sector seeing some rare buying, while Energy & Property also chimed in. Over the course of the 28 days of February, resources were the biggest drag on the index which fell by ~3% overall, clearly a weak period for stocks but against the backdrop of January’s ~6% advance, it’s no disaster, particularly given bond yield find themselves back testing multi-year highs.
We are making a number of changes to the International Equities Portfolio today
The correlation between the US S&P500 and its Telco Sector doesn’t reveal any standout information even though the telcos are often described as defensive investments i.e. a “top-down” approach to the telcos in today’s uncertain times would have many investors allocating funds to the defensives but as the chart below illustrates at this stage its all about stock selection as opposed playing the sector per se – we used the US because the ASX Telco Sector is dominated by Telstra (TLS).
Local shares started the week on the back foot following a soft Friday night in the US. Inflation concerns picked up again after the previous PCE figure was revised higher and bond yields rallied as a result.
The anticipated path of central banks continues to dominate the swings by stocks as they react to the continual flow of volatile economic data and accompanying rhetoric from the likes of the Fed & RBA. The correlation is very clear with the ASX rallying strongly when bond yields fell in early 2023 only to reverse when yields reversed higher earlier this month.
The ASX200 slipped another -0.5% last week with a -4.3% drop by heavyweight BHP weighing on both the index and the Materials Sector, however, the market’s pullback has started to lose momentum as company earnings fail to deliver the disasters many had feared/expected. Reporting season remains the dominant factor on the stock level but it’s interesting that things aren’t panning out as would be expected on the sector level:
Overall, the week was a soft one (-0.56%) dominated by company results, a lot of moving parts in the market at the moment however earnings have been okay, not a disaster as many suggested, while the focus at the macro at least remains around the trajectory of interest rates.
