Archives: Reports
US stocks rallied for the 4th straight session overnight as economic data continued to signal that the Fed is approaching the end of its current hiking cycle. The S&P500 closed above 4500 while the NASDAQ finds itself less than 3% below its 2023 high, at MM we are still targeting a break of 16,000 in the coming weeks/months by the NASDAQ which is no longer a big call as Treasury yields edge lower with investors taking a “bad news is good” approach embracing that a slowing economy will lead to a more dovish Fed.
Bang! Weak building approvals and a softer-than-expected read on inflation had the bulls charging today, and an already positive lead from the US overnight on weaker jobs data was supercharged by our own soft economic reads at 11.30 a.m., which should see the RBA hold fire from here, making 4.1% the peak in interest rates!
US indices rallied overnight delivering their best performance since June as bond yields retreated with economic data pointing to an end in the Feds tightening cycle. Almost 90% of the S&P500 closed higher led by the “tech mega-caps” as US 2-year treasury yields sank back below 4.9%. US job openings fell by more than expected to 8.83mn, another new 2-year low while consumer confidence fell amid a souring view towards jobs.
The majority of companies have now reported and while we hate using the old cliché, its been better than feared, much like the broader economic outcomes that have played out over the past year which has prompted a more aggressive stance by central banks globally – the imminent recession is getting less airtime and markets are reflecting that. As we’ve written at nauseum over recent months, we’re neutral at the index level but that belies significant action that’s unfolding under the hood, a theme we expect to continue, creating a great environment for stock picking, as long as you pick the right stocks!
The ASX200 rallied +0.6% on Monday despite an average day on the reporting front which saw Fortescue (FMG) -5.1% and NEXTDC (NXT) -2.6% both fall after delivering their earnings numbers/forward guidance. However, on the day there were some very influential names in the winner’s enclosure such as CSL Ltd (CSL) +1.7%, BHP Group (BHP) +1.2%, and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) +1.2% which when combined with over 60% of the main board advancing was enough to send the index higher.
A solid session to kick off the new week despite a mixed bag on the reporting front as we transition down the market cap spectrum over the next week. So far, results have been better-than-expected with earnings beats outnumbering misses 5:3, however there is growing uncertainty around what comes next and that’s filtering into softer guidance in aggregate for FY24, prompting downgrades.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it abundantly clear in his speech from Jackson Hole that the central bank would keep tightening if required to bring inflation back to its 2% target – its currently sitting at 3.2% after peaking above 9% in June 2022. As Powell reiterated from Wyoming “It’s the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal and we will do so”. Obviously, no mention was made about how/why the genie had escaped the lamp in the first place but we must acknowledge they have performed a solid job of reining it back in over the last ~18 months. Other comments while fairly hawkish were no surprise to MM:
The ASX200 ended just -0.5% lower last week but it was far more eventful on both the stock and sector level as reporting season and uncertain global indices continue to pull the market in different directions e.g. the Consumer Discretionary Sector advanced +1.8% while the Healthcare, Consumer Staples and the Utilities Sectors all fell well over -2%. However, it was on the stock level that Reporting Season lit up our screens in both directions, whatever company size or sector:
The worst of it was seen in early trade today with the ASX off ~100pts at the lows, but some buyers emerged throughout the session, particularly amongst the recently weak Staples while Healthcare stocks also attracted some attention from early lows, Ramsay Healthcare (RHC) for example rallied 3% from the depth of despair this morning! It felt like a tough week, and given only 2 sectors finished in the black, the selling was fairly broad-based, however, it was far from aggressive (ASX -0.5% for the week) and there were plenty of stocks that did well.
We are making multiple changes to the Flagship Growth Portfolio
