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The ASX200 slipped 0.2% on Tuesday after the RBA and Michele Bullock threw a wet towel over the “Rate Cut Party”, although she really only maintained her logical, cautious narrative.
The ASX opened firmer but reversed course after the RBA left rates unchanged at 3.6% and warned that near-term inflation may be stronger than expected, dampening hopes for easing in the short-term.
The ASX 200 put in a stellar performance on the penultimate day of September, advancing by +0.9% and reducing the month’s decline to 1.2% with just today remaining. Gains weren’t overly broad-based, with less than 60% of the main board closing higher, but when the “Big Four Banks” advance on average more than 1.8% the index is almost guaranteed to rally, and when it’s supported by the influential healthcare names, and a rampant gold sector, gains become magnified ultimately delivering the best day since September the 4th.
A bullish start to the week with the ASX outpacing gains seen in the US on Friday evening – the index getting the bit between its teeth from the opening bell, holding onto the gains as the day progressed.
The timing is striking: October is just days away, and the U.S. faces yet another potential government shutdown. If it occurs, key releases such as next Friday’s September jobs report would be delayed. Historically, shutdowns tend to inject short-term volatility but rarely have a lasting market impact, as they are often averted at the last minute or resolved quickly, a fitting backdrop for October’s reputation for turbulence.
The ASX200 snapped a 3 week losing streak up +0.2% although the broad market was soft with 8 of the main 11 sectors closing lower. However, a stellar +5.9% advance by the influential materials sector was enough to see the local bourse close higher, even as global indices experienced a rare dip for 2025. This recent sector rotation into the miners will be challenged early next week following a dip by BHP in the US on Friday night.
The ASX clawed back early weakness on Friday down about ~25pts early but rebounded strongly with a +40pt rally, edging into positive territory as strength in miners and the big banks offset heavy losses across healthcare, though only four of eleven sectors ended in the green.
The ASX 200 closed up +0.1% on Thursday, but it was a very polarised performance under the market’s hood, with 8 of the main 11 sectors retreating, with some standout performances across the resources space required to hold the index in positive territory.
Copper stocks were the place to be today, with the sector rallying strongly following production issues at Freeport McMoran’s Indonesian operation, with no clear time frame for resumption. The move in Copper (+4%) highlights how tight the global market is for this critical input, highlighting why we remain bullish over the medium term. Stocks with exposure here from Sandfire (SFR) +7.6% to Aic Miners (A1M) +9.7%, Capstone (CSC) +10.8% and even BHP +3.6% led the line today, mirroring moves seen across copper companies globally. Elsewhere, banks were mildly better after a tough session yesterday, while the market recovered nicely from early morning weakness, the finish up 35 points from the morning lows.
The ASX200 fell 0.9% on Wednesday, driven lower by the financials and healthcare stocks. The market struggled early on, following a soft session on Wall Street, before the selling intensified after the monthly inflation read came in hotter than expected. Consumer prices rose 3.0 per cent in the year to August, slightly above the 2.9% expected, effectively killing any hope the RBA would cut interest rates next week.
